The HVAC market - France

The HVAC market in France is currently at the crossroads of several major transitions: energy transition, digitalization of equipment and economic tensions over purchasing power. These dynamics are rapidly reshaping the contours of a sector historically focused on thermal comfort, but now at the heart of environmental performance strategies. In France, the sector is undergoing a major restructuring. On the one hand, air conditioning is becoming a versatile, increasingly reversible piece of equipment, blurring the boundary with aerothermal heat pumps, which have themselves become standard in high-performance renovations. On the other hand, heating remains the main household energy consumption item, accounting for 62% of energy used in 2024, but it is under double pressure: budgetary (41% of French people say they have had to limit heating, according to IFOP) and regulatory (gradual phase-out of fossil equipment, RE2020/2025 requirements). Dynamic demand is real: in the first half of 2024, 37,120 air/water heat pumps and 33,690 pellet stoves were installed, according to ANAH data. These figures reflect the success of public schemes such as MaPrimeRénov', reduced VAT or the eco-PTZ, which enabled more than 105,000 projects to be financed in 2023. However, this shift is accompanied by a weakening of the French industrial fabric, particularly in the air-conditioning segment: national production has fallen from 2.7 billion euros in 2018 to 217 million in 2023, a drop of over 90% (Eurostat). France has thus become structurally dependent on Asian imports to meet growing demand for thermal equipment. Nevertheless, the French market remains buoyant, with 24 billion euros worth of work carried out in the heating and air-conditioning sector in 2023 (+10% in one year). It relies on a dense network of companies, concentrated in the most urbanized regions: Île-de-France (24.1% of the sector's workforce), Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Hauts-de-France, revealing major hubs of activity but also potential for development in less-served territories. Finally, the regulatory framework provides structure to the entire sector. The tertiary sector decree requires a 40% reduction in the energy consumption of tertiary buildings by 2030, while the European european F-Gas regulation, effective in 2025, bans the use of refrigerants with a high global warming potential (GWP ≥ 750). These texts accelerate the spread of alternative fluids (R32, CO₂, propane, ammonia) and encourageproduct innovation. In short, the French HVAC market is entering a phase of rapid change, driven by environmental imperatives, technological opportunities and socio-economic constraints. It represents a strategic lever for both manufacturers and installers, at a time when energy savings, thermal comfort and indoor air quality are becoming societal priorities.