1.1 Definition and scope of study

Breakfast cereals are an agglomerate of nutrients, mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn, with natural or artificial flavors and sugar.

Two types of cereals can be distinguished:

Ready-to-eat cereals are the most common: they include wheat-based cereals, baby cereals, corn petals and muesli;
Ready-to-make cereals: mainly oat flakes such as porridge.

The breakfast cereals market consists of two segments: cereals for adults and cereals for children. Each segment has a different underlying dynamics. Nutritional input is particularly important in children's cereals, while dietary and taste characteristics are more relevant in the adult market.

It is estimated that the global cereal market has grown in recent years and will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5% until 2027. The growth of the market is mainly due to the growing demand for convenience foods, the urbanization trend and the growing awareness of the importance of food for health.

In Italy, the market is growing as Italians become more aware of the beneficial effects of having breakfast. In 2018, in fact, 88% of Italians declared to have breakfast and the annual per capita consumption of cereals is 1.6 kg.

The Italian market is very concentrated, with the prevalence of some operators belonging to large international groups, such as Kellogg's and Unilever. The distribution takes place mainly in the large-scale retail trade, where supermarkets represent the most significant market share.

In recent years, the market has seen a trend towards healthiness. In fact, supply has expanded to meet this new demand, producing 145% more fiber-rich cereals and decreasing sodium content by 61%.

1.2 The global market

The global breakfast cereal market has been growing in the past decade and is expected to continue this trend, reaching a value of **.** billion USD in ****.

The market was valued at **.* billion USD in **** and grew to **.* billion USD in ****. In addition to this, it is expected to grow at a ...

1.3 The Italian domestic market

In ****, the Italian market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals and cereal bars covered a total sales volume of **,*** tonnes, up **% on the previous year, when sales volume amounted to **,*** tonnes. In this context, the market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals amounted to **,*** tonnes for a value of ***.* million euros, while the volume of ...

1.4 Exports and imports of breakfast cereals

Breakfast cereals are referred to by the UNComtrade database as "food preparation, cereal products" and are associated with the commodity code ******.

The market relies mainly on exports, which in **** amounted to more than ** million USD. Instead, imports were valued at **.* million USD. The coverage rate expresses the importance of exports over ...

1.5 The impact of Covid-19 on breakfast cereal

Contrary to most other goods, breakfast cereals have experienced positive growth in ****.

The strict restrictions imposed by the Italian government forced the population to spend several months in their homes.In this context, a good habit such as breakfast gained attention and value. The impossibility of eating out, the search for ...

2.1 Italians' breakfast habits

Breakfast has always had a role in the Italian lifestyle: according to Kellog's research in ****, Italy was the first country in Europe in terms of population that has breakfast.

The map below synthesizes the share of the population that has an adequate breakfast every day (***). The whole country shows very high ...

2.2 The role of cereal in Italians' breakfast

According to Unione Food Italiana, bread and toasts with or without jam or honey on top are the still Italians' favorite breakfast item, followed by biscuits and brioches, preferred by **% of the population. This can be explained by the fact that these foods, although less healthy, are part of the Italian ...

2.3 Drivers of the growing demand for cereals

A food that is ready to be eaten

Collaborative millennials now represent the largest demographic in Western labor markets and, thus, have become the catalyst for retailers to change their commercial strategies.

With their busy calendars, these consumers often have a preference for healthy food to eat on the fly, but ...

3.1 The value chain of the market

The value chain and organization of the market are synthesized below.

3.2 Major players of the market

The major payers of the market are mostly multinationals of the agro-food business. The market is fragmented and highly competitive, as multinational brands such as Nestlè and Kellog's face competition from both self-producing supermarkets, such as Conad and Carrefour and specialized minor stores.

Major players such as Barilla and Cameo (***) play ...

3.3 Organization of cereal processing enterprises

The graph below is a breakdown by legal form of the **** Italian enterprises specialized in cereal processing, the second step in the production of breakfast ready-to-eat cereal.

As the graph shows, the great majority of these kinds of enterprises are constituted by individual entrepreneurs, about **% of the total. Limited liability companies ...

3.4 Distribution channels

The distribution of breakfast cereal takes place mostly through large-scale retail. The graph below provides a breakdown of the traditional distribution of cereal in Italy. Although the data isn't as recent, it can still provide an overview of the traditional distribution of breakfast cereal in the country. As we can see ...

4.1 Typologies of breakfast cereal

The different varieties of breakfast cereals can be divided into different sub-segments. First, there are the children's cereals, which are generally very sweet. [***]

Among the cereals for adults, there are those based on muesli, a mixture of oats and other ingredients such as dried fruit or seeds. These are stagnating in ...

4.2 Price of production

The graph below gives an overview of the production prices in the past year, based on the Istat producer price index set in ****=***.

As the data shows, producer's prices have remained quite stable during the lockdown months, in March, April, May, and June ****. However, the complications of the Covid-** pandemic and ...

4.3 New trends

All recent trends in the agro-food industry in the Western world are closely related to the increasing attention consumer have been giving to health-related issues.The sugar-tax, set to be put in place in **** in Italy, is also driving the free-from trend.

Consumption trends have shown how best-selling breakfast cereals for ...

4.4 Average price of breakfast cereals

The average prices for breakfast cereals are synthesized in the table below. The products chosen are the most loved ones by Italians in their categories according to Altro Consumo.

5.1 Regulation

The Harmonised System is an international nomenclature for the classification of goods. It allows participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At the international level, the Harmonised System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]

The HS consists of approximately *,*** item/product ...

5.2 Organic label and nutri-score

In order for a brand to obtain the organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:

At least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly ...