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Summary and extracts

1 Market overview

1.1 Definition and scope of study

Breakfast cereals are an agglomerate of nutrients, mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn, with natural or artificial flavors and sugar.

Two types of cereals can be distinguished:

  • Ready-to-eat cereals are the most common: they include wheat-based cereals, baby cereals, corn petals and muesli;
  • Ready-to-make cereals: mainly oat flakes such as porridge.

The breakfast cereals market consists of two segments: cereals for adults and cereals for children. Each segment has a different underlying dynamics. Nutritional input is particularly important in children's cereals, while dietary and taste characteristics are more relevant in the adult market.

It is estimated that the global cereal market has grown in recent years and will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5% until 2027. The growth of the market is mainly due to the growing demand for convenience foods, the urbanization trend and the growing awareness of the importance of food for health.

In Italy, the market is growing as Italians become more aware of the beneficial effects of having breakfast. In 2018, in fact, 88% of Italians declared to have breakfast and the annual per capita consumption of cereals is 1.6 kg.

The Italian market is very concentrated, with the prevalence of some operators belonging to large international groups, such as Kellogg's and Unilever. The distribution takes place mainly in the large-scale retail trade, where supermarkets represent the most significant market share.

In recent years, the market has seen a trend towards healthiness. In fact, supply has expanded to meet this new demand, producing 145% more fiber-rich cereals and decreasing sodium content by 61%.

1.2 The global market

The global breakfast cereal market has been growing in the past decade and is expected to continue this trend, reaching a value of **.** billion USD in ****.

The market was valued at **.* billion USD in **** and grew to **.* billion USD in ****. In addition to this, it is expected to grow at a ...

1.3 The Italian domestic market

In ****, the Italian market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals and cereal bars covered a total sales volume of **,*** tonnes, up **% on the previous year, when sales volume amounted to **,*** tonnes. In this context, the market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals amounted to **,*** tonnes for a value of ***.* million euros, while the volume of ...

1.4 Exports and imports of breakfast cereals

Breakfast cereals are referred to by the UNComtrade database as "food preparation, cereal products" and are associated with the commodity code ******. 

The market relies mainly on exports, which in **** amounted to more than ** million USD. Instead, imports were valued at **.* million USD.  The coverage rate expresses the importance of exports over ...

1.5 The impact of Covid-19 on breakfast cereal

Contrary to most other goods, breakfast cereals have experienced positive growth in ****.

The strict restrictions imposed by the Italian government forced the population to spend several months in their homes.In this context, a good habit such as breakfast gained attention and value. The impossibility of eating out, the search for ...

2 Demand Analysis

2.1 Italians' breakfast habits

Breakfast has always had a role in the Italian lifestyle: according to  Kellog's research in ****, Italy was the first country in Europe in terms of population that has breakfast.

The map below synthesizes the share of the population that has an adequate breakfast every day (***). The whole country shows very high ...

2.2 The role of cereal in Italians' breakfast

According to Unione Food Italiana, bread and toasts with or without jam or honey on top are the still Italians' favorite breakfast item, followed by biscuits and brioches, preferred by **% of the population. This can be explained by the fact that these foods, although less healthy, are part of the Italian ...

2.3 Drivers of the growing demand for cereals

A food that is ready to be eaten

Collaborative millennials now represent the largest demographic in Western labor markets and, thus, have become the catalyst for retailers to change their commercial strategies.

With their busy calendars, these consumers often have a preference for healthy food to eat on the fly, but ...

3 Market structure

3.1 The value chain of the market

The value chain and organization of the market are synthesized below.

3.2 Major players of the market

The major payers of the market are mostly multinationals of the agro-food business. The market is fragmented and highly competitive, as multinational brands such as Nestlè and Kellog's face competition from both self-producing supermarkets, such as Conad and Carrefour and specialized minor stores.

Major players such as Barilla and Cameo (***) play ...

3.3 Organization of cereal processing enterprises

 The graph below is a breakdown by legal form of the **** Italian enterprises specialized in cereal processing, the second step in the production of breakfast ready-to-eat cereal. 

As the graph shows, the great majority of these kinds of enterprises are constituted by individual entrepreneurs, about **% of the total. Limited liability companies ...

3.4 Distribution channels

The distribution of breakfast cereal takes place mostly through large-scale retail. The graph below provides a breakdown of the traditional distribution of cereal in Italy. Although the data isn't as recent, it can still provide an overview of the traditional distribution of breakfast cereal in the country. As we can see ...

4 Analysis of the offer

4.1 Typologies of breakfast cereal

The different varieties of breakfast cereals can be divided into different sub-segments. First, there are the children's cereals, which are generally very sweet. [***]

Among the cereals for adults, there are those based on muesli, a mixture of oats and other ingredients such as dried fruit or seeds. These are stagnating in ...

4.2 Price of production

The graph below gives an overview of the production prices in the past year, based on the Istat producer price index set in ****=***. 

As the data shows, producer's prices have remained quite stable during the lockdown months, in March, April, May, and June ****. However, the complications of the Covid-** pandemic and ...

4.3 New trends

All recent trends in the agro-food industry in the Western world are closely related to the increasing attention consumer have been giving to health-related issues.The sugar-tax, set to be put in place in **** in Italy, is also driving the free-from trend.

Consumption trends have shown how best-selling breakfast cereals for ...

4.4 Average price of breakfast cereals

The average prices for breakfast cereals are synthesized in the table below. The products chosen are the most loved ones by Italians in their categories according to Altro Consumo. 

5 Regulation

5.1 Regulation

The Harmonised System is an international nomenclature for the classification of goods. It allows participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At the international level, the Harmonised System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]

The HS consists of approximately *,*** item/product ...

5.2 Organic label and nutri-score

In order for a brand to obtain the organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:

At least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly ...

6 Positioning of the players

6.1 Segmentation

  • Kellogg’s
  • Nestlé Italia
  • Cameo
  • Barilla
  • Conad
  • Carrefour Italia
  • Coop
  • Jordans
  • Esselunga s.p.a
  • Lameri
  • Colfiorito
  • Nestlé Groupe

List of charts presented in this market study

  • Taille du marché mondial des céréales pour petit-déjeuner
  • Taille du marché national des céréales pour petit-déjeuner et volume des ventes
  • Évolution des importations et des exportations de céréales pour petit-déjeuner
  • Pays d'origine des importations
  • Principales destinations des exportations
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Latest news

Barilla loses the second round of the cookie war - 02/04/2024
  • Date of the Beginning of the Affair: June 2023 - Barilla asks the Court of Brescia to prohibit the sale of nine types of cookies by the Tedesco and Sapori Artigianali companies for excessive similarity to its own products.
  • First Degree of Judgment: February 2024 - The Court partially grants Barilla's requests, banning the sale of certain products and the use of certain packaging due to their similarity to Mulino Bianco's products and packaging.
  • Second Degree of Judgment: March 18, 2024 - The Court of Brescia dismisses Barilla's complaint and accepts the claims of the Tedesco and Sapori Artigianali companies.
  • Arguments of the Reversal of the Judgment:
    • Volgarization of Shape Marks: The shape of the cookies in question is now considered so common that it is no longer distinctive of a particular manufacturer.
    • Packaging Disputed: Despite similarity, Tedesco's packaging is not considered likely to create undue confusion or associations with Barilla's due to the prevalence of common elements in the industry.
    • Urgency of the Proceedings: The court rejects the urgency requested by Barilla for intervention, noting that Barilla was aware of the sale of the "similar" products as early as 2016.
  • Implications for the Industry: This case highlights the importance of distinctiveness and originality in product and packaging design in an overcrowded market. It also shows the legal and business challenges in protecting these aspects in competitive environments.
Barilla launches "Accordions": six years of research for a brioche perfect for dunking - 26/03/2024
  • Research and development period: 6 years, started in 2018.
  • Production facility: Melfi, Basilicata.
  • Investment: Over 30 million euros in the last 3 years in the Melfi plant, with investments dedicated to both sustainability and innovation, including the creation of production lines for Pancakes and Fisarmoniche.
  • Sugar content: Accordions has -35% sugar compared to the average of best-selling snacks.
  • Calorie content: 120 kcal/piece.
  • Plant production capacity: Maximum capacity of 83,000 tons/year.
  • Number of employees in Melfi: More than 350.
  • Quality checks: More than 5,000 checks on finished products and 200 on raw materials per day.
  • Environmental savings over the past 10 years: 40% water savings and 27% reduction in CO2 emissions.
  • Total number of Mulino Bianco references: Over 130, which include cookies, snacks, and breads.
  • Italians' preference for dunking: 6 out of 10 Italians like to dunk snacks or cookies for breakfast.
  • Ingredients: Without coloring and preservative additives or palm oil. Contains 4% fiber.
  • Plant size: 202,000 m^2.
Barilla: the pasta champion's anti-MDD plan - 08/03/2024
  • Barilla sales in 2021: 4.7 billion euros (+6.5% growth)
  • Private labels capture over 50% of the pasta market and 40% of the sandwich bread market. Pasta prices up by over 11%.
  • Barilla sales in France: 630 million euros (+7%), but volumes down 3%.
Barilla intends to maintain its volumes in the face of private labels - 08/03/2024
  • World leader in pasta and pesto
  • sales of €4.7 billion in 2023, up 6.5%, of which €630 million in France.
  • Volumes down 3% in 2023 across the French perimeter.
  • Increased advertising and promotional support for its Barilla and Harrys brands, in the face of private labels that now exceed 50% by volume for pasta and 40% for sandwich loaves.
Nestlé sells its Natur baby food products to FNB - 06/02/2024
  • nestlé is the world's number one food company.
  • FNB is a French investment fund specializing in small and medium-sized food companies.
  • Nestlé is in exclusive negotiations with FNB to sell its baby food business in France.
  • The products concerned are NaturNes baby food jars, Babicao and Babivanille infant powders, and the P'tit yogurt range.
  • These products are produced at the Arches plant.
  • Worldwide sales of Nestlé infant formulas rose by more than 10%.
Nestlé France sells its baby food products to Mousline - 02/02/2024
  • Nestlé is in exclusive negotiations with French investment fund FnB for the sale of its baby food business.
  • The ranges concerned are soups, purées, desserts and breakfast powders under the NaturNes, Babicao, Babivanille brands and the P'tit franchise.
  • Infant milks, the bulk of the portfolio - with Laboratoires Guigoz and Nestlé Nidal - remain within the Nestlé France fold.
  • The infant nutrition products targeted by this sale are produced in a factory in the Vosges region of France, which employs 230 people.
  • FnB, the potential buyer, specializes in supporting French SMEs in the food industry.
  • The infant food market in France shrank by 6% in volume last year due to the drop in the birth rate, with a sharper decline in milks than in diversification foods.
  • Nestlé has 14 factories in France.

Companies quoted in this study

This study contains a complete overview of the companies in the market, with the latest figures and news for each company. :

Kellogg’s
Nestlé Italia
Cameo
Barilla
Conad
Carrefour Italia
Coop
Jordans
Esselunga s.p.a
Lameri
Colfiorito
Nestlé Groupe

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