1.1 Definition and presentation
Breakfast cereals are an agglomeration of nutrients, mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn, with natural or artificial flavors and sugar.
There are two types of cereal:
- Ready-to-eat cereals are the most common: they include wheat-based cereals, children's cereals, cornflakes and mueslis;
- Ready-to-prepare cereals : mainly oat-based cereals such as porridge.
The breakfast cereals market comprises two distinct types of cereal: adult cereals and children's cereals. Each segment has a different underlying dynamic. Indeed, a health aspect is strongly attached to the children's cereal segment, while a dietary and taste aspect is particularly important in the adult market.
In 2023, the global breakfast cereal market is estimated at US$72 billion, with average growth forecast at 6.5% to 2027. The United States holds a dominant position in this market.
After experiencing1, the French cereals market, fMoreover, in 2022, France's trade balance showed a deficit of 50 million euros, marking a deterioration of 12 million euros on the previous year. France's main economic partners in this sector are Belgium, Spain, Germany and Italy .
Numerous players have emerged in recent years, with a gradual fragmentation of the market. These players rely on a demand for niche products such as organic, local products or products perceived as healthy by consumers, such as granola or muesli. This niche demand became particularly acute in 2020 with the pandemic and subsequent confinements, as many French people changed their consumption habits and turned to healthier, more balanced products: to organic products. As a result, the main players in the market have recognized this new trend and are increasingly changing their recipes to achieve Nutri-scores of type A or B.
1.2 Steady global growth
Global sales of the breakfast cereals market will amount to $**.* billion in ****, rising to an estimated $** billion in ****. Industry experts anticipate an annual CAGR of *.*% for the period ****-****, to reach ** billion in ****.
Breakfast cereals market value World, ****-****, $ billion Source : The business research company Market trends :
Product innovation: Continued flavor ...
1.3 The French market has seen some growth in value terms in recent years
With estimated sales of *** million euros in ****, the cereals market is set to grow by nearly *.*% in **** in value and *.*% in volume [***]
Breakfast cereals market sales France, ****-***** CAGR (***): +*.*% CAGR (***): +*.*% Source: ****
After declining by *% in volume in ****, the cereals market in France,boosted by the Covid period, returns to stability in ...
1.4 International trade: a slight rise in imports and exports
Foreign trade France, ****-****, in millions of US$ Source: ****
The code used for this section may include more than just breakfast cereals. It is code ****: Cereal products obtained by puffing or roasting (***), pre-cooked or otherwise prepared.
In ****, the French trade balance for code **** showed a deficit of ** million euros. It should ...
2.1 Breakfast demand remains strong in France
Daily breakfast consumption declines with age between * and **. However, this trend seems to reverse after a certain age, with **% of people aged ** and over declaring that they eat breakfast every day.
Breakfast every day France, ****, in
a **** survey conducted by Ifop for the Lavazza brand highlights the breakfast and lunch consumption ...
2.2 Cereal consumption habits vary widely according to consumer age
Cereal consumption among children in ****
In ****, the largest proportion of cereal consumers were children aged ** to **, who accounted for **.*%, with an average consumption of **.* g/d, while children aged * to ** represented **%, with an average consumption of **.* g/d.
Average distribution of daily consumption by place of consumption France, ****, in Source: ****
2.3 Breakfast: Substitutable demand
the [***] article highlights the positive trend in the breakfast sector in France, highlighting a *-point recovery in penetration, largely attributed to teleworking and periods of confinement linked to the Covid-** pandemic. The main challenges facing industry players include the need to continue innovating to win over consumers, to improve recipes and ...
2.4 Trend: organic and healthy products are growing exponentially
Health concerns shape new eating habits
French dietary trends France, ****, percentage Source: ****
the French are increasingly aiming for a healthy, balanced diet, for a variety of reasons (***). In fact, according to the graph above, **% of those questioned say that eating a healthy, balanced diet is a major concern, and **% would like ...
2.5 France's favourite breakfast cereal brands
The graph below shows the favorite breakfast cereal brands of the French. The percentages represent the positive responses to the question "Do you like this brand?" for each cookie brand.
Kellogg's is the favorite cereal brand of the French, with almost **% saying they like it. Frosties is the least popular cereal ...
3.1 Market value chain and distribution
How cereals are made :
Breakfast cereals are made from cereals, often wheat or rice, produced in France or imported from abroad.
After the first cooking, the petals are cooked again, in a circuit of hot air to remove all traces of moisture. Once cooled, they are flattened by ...
3.2 Stable cereal production, but with an increase in organic production
Stable grain production
NAF code **.**B : "Other grain processing activities" includes the production of groats, meal or pellets, wheat or other cereals, as well as the production of husked, milled or processed rice.it also includes the production of husked, milled or processed rice, but above all the manufacture of puffed, ...
3.3 Main brands on the market
Breakdown of the breakfast cereals market by value France, ****, in percent Source: ****
The breakfast cereal market is dominated by * main players: Kellogg's with **% of market share in ****, followed by Nestlé with a quarter of market share. Two other players also stand out: Jordans and Quaker. between them, these * players accounted for ...
4.1 Cereal composition and typology
Average cereal composition
The different cereals
We saw in *.* that there are different types of cereal: petals, puffs, bursts and extruded products. There are also mueslis and granolas. Mueslis are a mixture of uncooked cereals, mainly oat flakes, with fruit.mueslis are often eaten with milk and/or yoghurt; granolas, ...
4.2 Grain prices
in **** (***), consumer breakfast prices rose by **.*% in less than * year .
This increase is mainly attributed to the war in Ukraine, which has led to higher manufacturing costs for packaging, due to Ukraine's crucial role in European production. In addition, soaring energy costs and difficulties in sourcing rawmaterials led to a sharp ...
4.3 Nutri-score: a major challenge for cereals, is organic a solution?
Nutri-score: a decisive factor
The availability of the Nutri-score in France, along with product comparison apps such as Yuka, is playing a further role in raising consumer awareness of the low nutritional value of breakfast cereals.
Most organic brands have adopted the Nutri-score, with scores between A and B for the ...
4.4 More trends and innovations to challenge the market
Packaging is a factor that enables a brand to stand out from the crowd. In fact, eco-packaging helps to attract customers who are concerned about their waste production, especially as most cereals are packaged in a plastic bag that, a priori, cannot be recycled.
French organic cereal brand Snooz offers ...
5.1 World Customs Nomenclature and Harmonized System
The Harmonized System is an international nomenclature for product classification. It enables participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At international level, the Harmonized System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]
The HS comprises around *,*** item/product descriptions, which appear as ...
5.2 Organic label and nutri-score
For a brand to obtain the organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:
at least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly from the ...
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