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Summary of our market study
Since 2020, the coffee market has seen a variety of emerging trends and developments. Consumer trends point to a growing demand for high-quality, sustainable coffee products, particularly among younger consumers such as Generation Z. Interest in herbal coffee, cold brews and innovative offerings such as Proffee (protein coffee) is on the rise. Market segmentation shows the growing popularity of coffee beans, which grew by 11.1% between 2020 and 2021, while traditional ground filter coffee declined by 5%.
The capsule and pod segments appear stable, with minimal changes in market share. Despite these fluctuations, ground roasted coffee remains the market leader, with a share of 46.9% in 2021. The German market, in particular, has shown a penchant for high-end products, contributing to sales in the fair trade sector reaching around 705.45 million euros in 2022. In addition, the average price of a cup of coffee at home in 2023 will vary according to the method of preparation, with Nespresso capsules being the most expensive at €0.36 per cup and Senseo pods the cheapest at €0.14. The growth of the coffee industry is also influenced by the Supply Chain Act, which aims to ensure ethical practices in the supply chain, reflecting the increased emphasis on corporate social responsibility and sustainability.
Coffee demand analysis: Key coffee market trends in the country concerned
The coffee market in the country concerned, which appears to be Germany from the context, has seen a palpable evolution in consumer preferences and trends. The growing appetite for coffee has led to an increase in export volume from around 118,000 to between 140,000 and 150,000 thousand 60-kilo bags in 2022/23. This growth not only highlights coffee's popularity, but also underscores its importance in world trade, with leading producers such as Brazil and Vietnam accounting for around half of total output. German consumers are particularly demanding when it comes to quality, which is reflected in their willingness to pay higher prices for top-of-the-range products. This trend is evident in the strong growth of fair trade coffee sales, which have reached between 700 and 710 million euros in 2022, positioning coffee as a leader in the fair trade sector. The market has increasingly favored organic coffee and coffee beans, indicating a general move towards more environmentally-friendly, higher-quality coffee options.
In Germany, almost 80% of adults consume coffee, with the majority drinking at least two cups a day. Coffee is appreciated for its taste and stimulating effect, but what is striking is that consumption increases steadily with age. Among people aged 18-29, 50-60% drink at least two cups a day, rising to over 70% for older people. Coffee preparation methods vary considerably, with fully automatic coffee machines gaining in popularity, as evidenced by the fact that over 20% of German households own one. By contrast, traditional filter coffee brewing methods are becoming less popular. In terms of brands, Jacobs leads the way with high levels of awareness and use among consumers - over 90% are familiar with the brand, and around three-quarters have purchased it. This market is set to evolve further with the introduction of the Supply Chain Act, which aims to ensure respect for human rights and environmental standards in corporate supply chains. This law could influence market dynamics by affecting international trade relations and possibly modifying cost structures. In summary, the German coffee market is experiencing dynamic growth, with a clear preference for high-quality, sustainable products on the part of increasingly discerning consumers. The market is also witnessing legal pressure for fairer business practices and greater corporate responsibility, which could influence future trends in this segment.
Key players dominating the German coffee market
The German coffee market, renowned for its growth and diversity of consumer preferences, is marked by the notable presence of both national and international companies. Among the myriad brands, several stand out for their decisive role in shaping consumer tastes and market dynamics.
- Neumann Coffee Group occupies an important place in the coffee trade. As the world's largest green coffee services group, Neumann focuses on green coffee sourcing, financing and logistics. Its expertise in this field has made it a leader in supplying sustainable, high-quality coffee products to roasters worldwide.
- Louis Dreyfus Company is another titan in the arena, with its global reach in agricultural commodities. The company's extensive portfolio includes the trading and marketing of a wide range of products, of which coffee is a key component. Louis Dreyfus prides itself on its responsible approach to sourcing, contributing to the sustainability discourse in the coffee market.
- When it comes to roasters, Nestlé is a household name, synonymous with its Nescafé brand, which is a staple in many German households. Its innovative approach to coffee products keeps Nestlé at the forefront of consumer preferences, catering for a wide range of tastes and preparation methods.
- JDE Peet' s brings together a large number of coffee brands, including Jacobs, Douwe Egberts and Tassimo. The diversity of its portfolio enables it to conquer different market segments, from instant coffee to sophisticated capsule systems, and thus maintain a solid position in the sector.
- Starbucks, world-renowned for its specialty coffees, is extending its influence through retail products. Offering a taste of the Starbucks experience at home, the brand's variety of packaged coffees and coffeehouse-style drinks has found a receptive audience in Germany.
- Lavazza, an Italian coffee manufacturer, delighted coffee lovers with its authentic espresso and wide choice of coffee blends. The brand's commitment to quality reflects the high coffee expectations of German consumers.
- The name Melitta evokes the tradition and culture of coffee-making. This long-established German brand invented the paper coffee filter, revolutionized home coffee-making and continues to innovate in the coffee world.
- Tchibo also plays a key role in offering a weekly rotating product range that often includes coffee-related equipment and accessories, as well as a wide range of coffee varieties. Tchibo's commitment to sustainable development and direct trade practices is in line with the European Union's coffee policy.
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Summary and extracts
1 Market overview
1.1 Scope of the study
The coffee market is special because it is divided into several segments. These include, for example, ground coffee, organic coffee, bean coffee, soluble coffee or decaffeinated coffee. It is a market that changes a lot and depends on trends.
The demand for coffee is increasing every year. Worldwide, the most important coffee producers are the countries of Latin America and Asia. In Germany, the market has grown strongly in recent years for cultural reasons.
German consumers have high quality expectations. They are willing to consume expensive coffee to have the guarantee of consuming a quality product. This differs from other sectors where Germans consume in search of quality at low prices.
There are a large number of brands and the presence of global companies such as Starbucks in the market, which provide additional competition to domestic companies.
Several international brands such as Nestlé are present in Germany. Local companies such as J. J. Darboven & Dallmayr are also very present. However, companies such as Coffee Fellows (founded in 1999) have become more established in the market in recent years.
For some years now, the demand for organic and fair trade coffees has increased. Coffee beans are also preferred. Overall, consumers are also taking environmental concerns into account, which is why certified "sustainable and environmentally friendly" products are gaining market share.
1.2 Global market for coffee
Coffee is one of the most popular beverages in the world. Every day, * billion cups of coffee are consumed. Annual global sales are estimated at $*** billion. Global coffee demand in **** was estimated at ***.* million bags to ***.* million bags. Over the past ** years, the average annual growth rate has been *.*% PER YEAR, and over the past two decades, it has increased to *.*%. This increase means that the market size has increased by ***% since **** (***).
Since ****, most of this growth has been generated by producing and emerging countries as they have also become consumers. This aspect can play a significant role in the future development of the coffee market, which we will discuss later[***].
The CAGR between **** and ****. is even forecast by Yahoo Finance to be *.*%. The forecast is justified by various factors:
Global sales of coffee Global, **** - ****, in USD billion Source: ****
One of these factors is the increasing popularity of coffee drinks consumed outside the home. This has led to more people visiting cafes, bistros and coffee chains to get their daily dose of caffeine.
Another important factor is the rapid urbanization that is taking place in many parts of the world. With the emergence of modern cities and metropolitan areas, there ...
1.3 Coffee an important product of global trade
These statistics show the development of the export volume of coffee in the period from ****/** to ****/** (***). The figures are given in thousand **-kilogram bags. In the period under consideration, a general upward trend in the export volume of coffee can be observed. In ****/**, the export volume was ***.** thousand bags, while in ****/** it is forecast to reach ***.** million bags. This represents an increase of about **%.
Export volume of coffee worldwide Worldwide, **** - ****, in *,*** bags of ** kilograms each Source: ****
The main coffee growing countries are Brazil and Vietnam account for about **% of the total crop. Other leading countries in cultivation are Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia.
Share of leading growing countries in the global coffee harvest Worldwide, **** - ****, % Source: ****
1.4 The National Market in Growth
Germany occupies a significant position in the international coffee business. This concerns the import of green green coffee, roasting, export of roasted beans to other countries and final consumption. The most important players in the global market are represented in the German coffee market.
In a comparison within Europe, the price of coffee in Germany is at a medium level. On average, we spend €*.** per cup and are also willing to pay a higher price for high quality and sustainable production. This is reflected in the increase in sales of fair trade coffee in Germany in **** to around €***.** million. Coffee thus represents the strongest segment in terms of sales in the fair trade sector and could grow at a compound annual growth rate (***) of **.** .
Fairtrade coffee sales Germany, **** - ****, in € million Source: ****
Overall, consumers in Germany spend around €** billion on coffee, with €* billion spent in retail and online trade. The majority of sales, around €** billion, are in the out-of-home sector such as coffee shops, train stations and restaurants. One-fifth of coffee accounts for three-quarters of sales, which the industry calls "premiumization." Coffee capsules and pods also contribute to high prices per kilo, especially for expensive brands such as Nespresso or ...
2 Demand analysis
2.1 The German consumer
A large proportion of German adults(***) consume coffee. **% of all adults who drink coffee, drink at least two cups a day. At the same time, **% stated in a survey that they started drinking coffee before the age of **, while **% had already drunk coffee before the age of ** .
It is equally surprising that the consumption of coffee steadily increases over time. For example, **% of adults aged ** to ** consume an average of two or more cups daily, compared to **% of those aged ** to ** and **% of those over **.
Coffee consumption by age Germany, ****, in % Source: ****
Reasons for coffee consumption Germany, ****, in % Source: ****
2.2 Key factors of demand
There are a variety of preparation methods that satisfy different taste preferences. Filter coffee, soluble coffee, coffee from pad or capsule machines, fully automatic coffee machines and coffee from an espresso pot are just a few examples.
Filter coffee is a traditional method of pouring hot water through a filter paper containing ground coffee. This method allows for a gentle extraction of flavors and results in a mild and balanced taste.
Soluble coffee, also called instant coffee, is a quick and easy alternative for those who are short on time or do not have a coffee maker. It consists of freeze-dried or spray-dried coffee that dissolves in hot water.
Coffee from pad or capsule machines is another convenient option for coffee drinkers. The pods or capsules contain pre-measured amounts of coffee powder to be used in the respective machines. This method offers a wide variety of coffees and flavors, but it is less environmentally sustainable due to packaging waste.
Fully automatic coffee machines are for coffee lovers who value freshness and quality. The machines grind the coffee beans directly before brewing and allow the adjustment of various parameters such as grind, water quantity and brewing temperature. This allows the user to ...
2.3 Demand trends
The trends in coffee consumption for **** can be summarized as follows:
Plant-Based Coffee: the trend toward plant-based milk alternatives continues. Vegan coffee variations are becoming more popular as they replace animal ingredients and are more sustainable. Special plant-based barista variants allow for creamy latte creations. Cold Brew Coffee: Cold brew coffee continues to enjoy great popularity. It is brewed with cold water, which extracts fewer bitter substances and acids and brings out the flavors more intensely. Proffee (***): Proffee combines a protein shake with coffee and is considered an energy booster. It is particularly popular with health-conscious guests and fitness fans, as it supports muscle building and can be prepared in a variety of ways. Individual coffee creations: The ability to create coffee specialties according to individual preferences is increasingly in demand. Customers should be able to choose different coffee variants, milk varieties, syrup variants, toppings and garnishes to create their perfect coffee. Coffee specialties with alcohol: The combination of coffee and alcohol offers a wide range of variations and enriches cocktail menus. Classics such as Irish Coffee and Fiaker are well known, but new creations such as Diplomat Coffee are also growing in popularity.
Zero Waste Trend: Sustainability and zero waste ...
2.4 The Germans' favorite brands
In Germany, coffee is one of the preferred hot beverages. Jacobs is the most popular coffee brand. In a survey conducted by Splendid Research in February ****, more than ** percent of participants said they were familiar with Jacobs. Some ** percent have already purchased the brand. Jacobs is followed by Tchibo and Melitta.
Awareness and consumption of coffee brands Germany, ****, in % Source: ****
3 Market structure
3.1 Coffee value chain
The coffee value chain begins with the cultivation of coffee plants, mainly in countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Ethiopia, where the climate is optimal for the plants to thrive. After harvesting, the coffee cherries are processed, with the beans being dried, fermented and roasted to achieve the desired aroma and flavor. Finally, the roasted coffee is distributed to distributors and retailers who sell it to end consumers who can enjoy the beverage in various forms such as espresso, cappuccino or filter coffee.
Source: ****
Source: ****
3.2 Price calculation for fair trade coffee
The global coffee trade is unevenly distributed, with producers in the Global South receiving only a fraction of the profits. Roasters and processors in industrialized countries benefit the most, as they generate most of the value added through cost-intensive roasted coffee processing and refining. Farmers receive on average only * percent of the retail coffee price, while up to ** percent goes to producers for fair trade coffee. A more equitable distribution of value is needed to promote economic growth and prosperity in coffee-producing countries. The conventional coffee value chain leaves little money for coffee farm owners and their employees. Therefore, the concept of fair trade and direct trade is becoming increasingly important to provide better living and working conditions for coffee farmers and their families and to promote a more equitable distribution of income.
The following figure shows the price calculation for fair trade coffee:
Source: ****
4 Offer analysis
4.1 Price development
The index for coffee provides an overview of the development of coffee prices in recent years. The data in the table shows the changes in the index from **** to ****, revealing trends, fluctuations and possible correlations with global events. The index serves as an important indicator for the coffee industry and allows us to better understand what is happening in the market and derive forecasts for the future. The table shows the annual index values from ** in **** to ***.* in ****, reflecting the price dynamics in the coffee market. The index year is ****.
Consumer Price Index for Coffee Germany, **** - ****, Index Source: ****
Coffee prices vary depending on the preparation method and machine. Senseo pods are the cheapest at €*.**, while Nespresso capsules are the most expensive at €*.**. Dolce Gusto, Cafissimo and Tassimo are at €*.**. Fully automatic coffee machines and portafilter machines offer a cheaper alternative at *.**€ per cup. Average price for a cup of coffee at home Germany, ****, in euros Source: ****
4.2 The different coffee segments
The roasted coffee market is a dynamic business that is constantly evolving to meet the changing needs of coffee drinkers. In this year ****, there are some interesting developments in the market shares of the different coffee segments represented in both supermarket and online sales. Discounters, hypermarkets, drugstores, local roasters, specialty roasters and specialty stores offer consumers a wide range of coffee types and forms. In this article, we will look at the market shares of the different coffee products based on coffee weight in percent.
Coffee capsules have a market share of *.*% in ****. This segment has become increasingly important in recent years, as more and more consumers have switched to coffee capsules due to their convenience and ability to quickly and easily prepare a cup of coffee. Coffee machines that use capsules are widely available and offer a variety of flavors and strengths.
Coffee pods, another form of portioned coffee, have a *.*% market share. They offer similar benefits to coffee capsules, but tend to be less expensive and more environmentally friendly because they require less packaging material. Coffee pods are available in a variety of flavors and can be used in both dedicated pad machines and conventional coffee machines.
The largest ...
5 Regulation
5.1 Supply Chain Act
The Supply Chain Act: Corporate Due Diligence in Supply Chains
The Supply Chain Act is a law passed in Germany that requires companies to ensure compliance with human rights and environmental standards along their supply chains. It initially affects companies with *,*** or more employees and is set to apply to those with *,*** or more employees from ****. The aim of the law is to strengthen corporate due diligence in supply chains and to prevent or minimize negative impacts on people and the environment from companies' operations.
The basis of this law is the recognition that companies have a responsibility for the social and environmental impacts of their business practices, even if those impacts are caused by their suppliers. Therefore, companies should not only monitor their own actions, but also the actions of their direct (***) suppliers.
The Supply Chain Act covers four main aspects:
*.Risk analysis: companies must conduct a systematic risk analysis to identify potential negative impacts on human rights and the environment in their supply chains. This analysis should be regularly updated and documented.
*.Preventive measures: Based on the results of the risk analysis, companies must take appropriate measures to avoid or minimize the identified risks. This includes informing ...
6 Positioning of the players
6.1 Segmentation of the players
- Dallmayr distribution automatique France
- Tchibo
- Melitta
- Starbucks coffe Deutschland
- Nestle Deutschland
- Neumann Kaffee Gruppe
- Louis Dreyfus Company
- Olam Group
- JDE Jacobs Douwe Egberts (JAB Holding)
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