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Summary of our market study
The global breakfast cereal market is characterized by steady growth, with a forecast CAGR of 2.9% between 2017 and 2023. The market was valued at $29.9 billion, driven largely by emerging economies where changing lifestyles are increasing demand for convenient meal options, such as breakfast cereals.hanges in lifestyles are increasing demand for convenient meal options, such as cereal bars and ready-to-eat cereals. The USA remains the largest consumer and producer, with companies such as Kellogg, PepsiCo and General Mills commanding around half the market share. European sales reached 9.15 billion euros, with Europe and North America holding a combined market share of 69%.
In the UK, organic products only account for 1.5% of food sales, but the organic market has followed an upward trend after recovering from a slowdown. In terms of consumer behavior, despite a drop in average weekly cereal consumption per person, the trend is towards healthier, more environmentally-friendly eating habits. More and more consumers are looking for organic, sugar-free, gluten-free and palm-oil-free products. In a highly competitive market, leading players such as Kellogg's are striving to meet the needs of millennials, who prefer hot cereals, muesli and granola because of their healthy image and convenience. In terms of distribution, e-commerce and discount stores saw sales growth of over 30%, taking a larger share from traditional supermarkets and hypermarkets.
The UK's production value was £2.1 million, but the country is facing a lack of interest in breakfast, with more and more people skipping the meal. Despite this, the UK maintains a profitable balance of trade in this sector, with exports exceeding imports. The analysis also shows that a variety of breakfast cereals are available, with ready-to-eat cereals dominating sales. Flakes saw the biggest drop in sales, while the muesli and granola segments experienced the strongest growth. Cereal bars and other breakfast alternatives, such as eggs or yoghurt, are notable competitors on the market.
Breakfast cereal consumption trends in the UK
In the UK, breakfast cereal consumption has been on a downward trend, with average weekly consumption per person dropping by around 11% in the space of just over a decade, from around 135 grams to around 120 grams. The reasons for this decline are manifold, with the hectic pace of modern life prompting many Britons to skip breakfast altogether. In fact, around 35% of the population do not eat breakfast at least once a week. Despite the fall in consumption, the market for breakfast cereals in the UK is significant, with around 27 million citizens consuming cereals for breakfast. This figure has remained relatively stable over the intervening years, indicating a fairly large constant consumer base, although it is notable that the frequency of cereal consumption has changed, with occasional consumers increasing at the expense of regular consumers. The market's response to changing consumer preferences has been distinctive, particularly among young people. Young people, especially those aged 21 and under, have turned away from cereals, with only 28% preferring them for breakfast.
What's more, this age group is also the most likely to skip the morning meal, with 71% having skipped breakfast at least once in the week preceding the survey. As eating habits evolve towards more balanced breakfasts, sales of fruit, eggs, porridge and cereal bars have seen an increase - for example, porridge sales have risen by around 7.4%. The demand for healthier products is reflected in the type of cereals that are gaining in popularity. The muesli and granola categories, perceived as healthier, have seen significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%. Changing preferences are also evident in the organic market. The UK, Europe's fifth-largest organic market with sales of over €2.3 billion, has seen over half its population buy organic food, although a smaller proportion do so regularly. This suggests a reasonable level of interest in organic options, but one that is minimal compared to other European countries where organic consumption is more widespread.
In terms of distribution, the majority of breakfast cereal sales continue to take place in traditional outlets such as supermarkets and grocery stores, although online sales have seen a notable increase.
The breakfast cereals market landscape is not only dynamic but also competitive, marked by the presence ofthe market landscape for breakfast cereals is not only dynamic but also competitive, marked by the presence of industry behemoths as well as the rise of new competitors responding to changing consumer preferences. The competitive arena is characterized by the dominance of traditional giants and the growing influence of innovative brands capitalizing on organic and health-conscious trends.
- Kellogg's: Often synonymous with breakfast cereals, Kellogg's is a colossus in this market sector. With a wide range of offerings from classic cornflakes to more indulgent chocolate-flavored varieties, Kellogg's has cemented its place on breakfast tables worldwide. Not resting on its laurels, Kellogg's has expanded its portfolio to include cereal bars and has embraced online bulk sales methods, a testament to its ability to adapt to modern consumer behavior.
- Weetabix: A household name in the UK, Weetabix is a major player in the porridge and hot cereals segment. Known for its whole-wheat cookies, Weetabix has been part of the traditional English breakfast for decades. In response to the demand for healthier options, Weetabix has positioned itself as a nutritious start to the day, attracting health-conscious consumers.
- Quaker Oats (owned by PepsiCo): Known for its classic oatmeal and porridge offerings, Quaker has led the hot cereal market for years. Its association with PepsiCo gives it a vast distribution network and a strong market presence. Quaker has managed to stay relevant by innovating with new flavors and convenient packaging formats adapted to active lifestyles.
- General Mills: Owner of well-known brands such as Cheerios, General Mills competes fiercely with its range of ready-to-eat cereals. The company has also ventured into bulk sales, responding to the needs of consumers who prefer to personalize their cereal quantities when shopping.
- Special K (a Kellogg Co. brand): Special K has made a name for itself by tapping into the diet and health segment of the breakfast market. With products often aimed at weight management and fitness, Special K has become a preferred choice for those seeking to maintain a balanced diet. The steady influx of smaller players focusing on organic, gluten-free or sugar-free options reflects the market's evolution. These newcomers capitalize on the latest food trends, contributing to competitive pressure on established brands.
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Summary and extracts
1 Market summary
1.1 The market at a glance
Breakfast cereals are a cluster of nutrients mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn with natural or artificial flavours, and sugar. Appeared in the second half of the 19th century [ stealingshare ... they generally accompany breakfast, in particular the traditional English breakfast in the form of boiled cereals, also known as porridge [ industrytoday ].
Marked by a plethora of products the breakfast cereal industry is dominated by very large players, such as Kellogg's in the world or Weetabix in the United Kingdom. New players have appeared on the market in recent years, thanks in particular to strong demand for products labelled organic or sugar-free / gluten-free [ stealingshare ]
However, the market is facing a growing lack of interest in breakfast, which is increasingly being missed by the British. Statistics] Competition is also very important, both in the market and in traditional English breakfast foods
Our study will include here breakfast cereals called ready-to-eat, and boiled ( porridge in English), as well as derivative products such as cereal bars .
1.2 Steady global growth
The global turnover of the breakfast cereal market represents **.* billion in ****. Industry experts anticipate a CAGR annual by *.*% for the period ****-****.
Source: ****
The market is being driven by emerging economies where there is a paradigm shift in customers' purchasing behaviour and eating habits.
Rapid urbanization and the rapid growth of the middle class population in these economies is leading to a change in lifestyle and an increased demand for on-the-go meal options. Since grain is considered to offer many health benefits and easy to prepare They are in increasing demand by consumers around the world. The growing demand for fast food meal options is driving the consumption of cereal bars and cookies for breakfast. [***]
The United States is the world's largest consumer of breakfast cereals, as well as the largest producer. Indeed, of all the companies in the sector, Kellogg, PepsiCo and General Mills have approximately **% of the total market share s. In Europe, finally, the market's sales will reach *.** billion euros in ****. [***] Europe and North America account for more than two thirds of the market with **% market share.
1.3 A stagnating market in the United Kingdom
National production of breakfast cereals is at United Kingdom to £*.* million (***) in ****, a figure that declines by *.*% each year over the ****-**** period . [***]
On the sales side, in ****, *.* billion pounds (***).
The figures for the next five years provided by Euromonitor give a CAGR of *% at constant price **** in terms of sales with a total of £*.* billion in **** .
Source: ****
The United Kingdom's trade balance in this sector is clearly profitable, with a total of *** million pounds imported in ****, and *** million pounds exported, for a coverage rate of ***% . [***]. This rate has been declining in recent years, it was for example ***% in **** in value terms
Source: ****
In this highly competitive market (***), also the leader in boiled cereals or porridge . [***]
1.4 A trend towards "healthy" products
The cereals segment at Muesli and Granola is the one that has experienced the most significant growth in recent years, from ***.* million pounds in **** to ***.* million in ****, or a CAGR of *.*% over this period, and projections at *.*% per year over the period ****-****. [***] In comparison, the flaked cereal segment (***)
Oatmeal or hot cereals, although a minority in this breakfast cereal market, is still growing steadily with a CAGR of *.*% over the ****-**** period . [***]
2 Demand analysis
2.1 Consumer topology
Average consumption down
From ***g in **** to ***g in ****, average weekly consumption per person in the United Kingdom has fallen by **% in ** years[***]
Source: ****
In total, about ** million British people were consuming cereals during their breakfast in **** a constant figure in subsequent years, although occasional cereal consumers are becoming more and more numerous at the expense of regular consumers. [***]
Source: ****
Source: ****
Generational differences
An Attest study a food and cosmetics consumer research company, interviewed a panel of *** consumers in the United Kingdom about their expectations and consumption habits According to them, **.*% of respondents place cereals as the first ingredient in their breakfast in front of toast/bagels and fruits. However, fewer people ** years of age or younger follow this trend, only **% of them prefer cereals for their breakfast.
The latter are the most numerous to skip breakfast, they would be **% to have skip breakfast at least once in the past week the survey. [***]
2.2 New consumption habits
More balanced breakfasts
Consumption of fruit, eggs and especially porridge at breakfast increased between **** and ****, respectively by *.*%, *.*% and *.*%. Sales of cereal bars also increased by *.*% in the same year. [***]
The end of palm oil and added sugars
More and more environmental associations are calling for a reduction in palm oil consumption, Greenpeace in the lead. They point the finger at many companies that include this oil in their product, such as Kellogg's, which incorporates it into these cereal bars. [***]
In addition, several health associations such as the British Heart Foundation or the information site diabetes.org.uk warn against the proportion of sugars in cereals. The review Nature indicates in **** that that about **% of the children's cereals on the UK market provide more than half of the recommended daily sugar intake for children aged *-* years, with a regular portion.
An easily substitutable product
According to a study conducted by GranViewResearch the demand for breakfast cereals is limited by the enormous availability of alternatives . Most consumers prefer eggs, smoothies, frozen waffles, yogurt, sausages, puddings and other traditional breakfasts, which are healthier and made with fresh ingredients
In addition, the abundant availability of convenient, inexpensive and nutritious on-the-go meals is a threat ...
2.3 Focus on the organic trend in the UK
A market on a rising trend, but in retreat compared to some European countries
Source: ****
The United Kingdom appears as the *th largest European market for organic farming products with over *.* billion euros in **** . However, this position is due more to the number of consumers (***) than to acceptance by a large number of individuals. In fact, organic products represent only *.*% of food sales. Conversely, countries such as Switzerland and Sweden, respectively the *th and *th largest European markets, are in this ranking thanks to a high utilisation rate. France and Germany combine a high acceptance rate with a large consumer base.
Source: ****
The sales curve in the organic market over the period ****-**** is a V-curve. From **** to ****, the market declined by around **.*% in value terms, before recovering to reach its peak in **** with £*.** billion.
Consumption habits
Source: ****
According to Bord Bia, **% of British people had bought organic food during the year, a much higher amount than in **** but still far from other European countries
Source: ****
If we look at the details of this consumption, the number of regular consumers appears low, less than **% of British people have bought organic food in the past week while **% said they did so more ...
2.4 Millennials seek healthier cereals
Demand for healthier products
The growing interest in nutrition and food quality has extended consumer demand to natural products with a low number of ingredients, "super foods" and gluten-free products. The milllenials, which are the main targets.. of advertising for breakfast cereals as they gain purchasing power, pay more attention to healthy eating than other generations. The British company Kellogg Co. has been particularly successful in exploiting this trend. A change in Special K's marketing strategy and the launch of W K Kellogg's with the slogans #powering you and Be a Force of Nature respectively, were successful and increased sales. [***]
Market segments in greater demand
Hot cereal, muesli and granola are the main categories responsible for the overall growth of breakfast cereals in ****. This growth has been based on the healthy image of these products, which have benefited from strong promotion on social networks, highlighting their effects on health and well-being. Porridge is least processed It is low in sugar, has a high fibre content and can lower cholesterol levels. Muesli and granola have benefited from the development of new variants with reduced sugar content, increased protein content or enriched fibre to satisfy health-conscious consumers. These two categories are also following ...
3 Market structure
3.1 Market value chain and distribution
The observation of sales by distribution channel shows a clear trend in favour of e-commerce and discount stores, which saw their sales increase by more than **% over the period studied.
Source: ****
3.2 La progression des MDD s’effectue au détriment de Kellogg's
Source: ****
L’évolution des parts de marché des principaux acteurs du segment révèle plusieurs tendances et événements :
On observe une diminution progressive de Kellogs dont les parts de marché sont passées de **,*% à **,*%. Les marques de distributeurs ont connu une forte croissance sur la période jusqu’à devenir leader avec **,*% des ventes en ****. La société américaine Post Holding est apparue sur le marché des céréales de petit-déjeuner en **** suite à l’achat de la marque Weetabix pour *,** milliard de US$ au conglomérat chinois Bright Food Group. [***] Parmi les principaux acteurs du marché, l’entreprise Pepsico est passée de *,*% de PDM à *,*% sur la période d’observation. Cela représente la progression la plus élevée du marché (***).
3.3 Distribution channels
According to EuroMonitor, **.*% of breakfast cereals were sold in grocery stores, supermarkets and classic hypermarkets, the rest being sold on the Internet (***), the latter percentage up *.* points compared to ****
Source: ****
3.4 Change in raw material prices
Source: ****
We can see that the price curve for cereals (***) is V-shaped, with price peaks in **** and ****. There is also a weak price spread with common movements for the different cereals.
Evolution of prices by cereal United Kingdom, **** - ****, base *** = ****
Source: ****
3.5 La production de céréales : une place importante dans le domaine agricole britannique et une diminution des cultures bio
Source: ****
Les cultures céréalières représentaient **% de la superficie cultivable en ****, soulignant l’importance de cette culture dans l’agriculture britannique. Le blé et l'orge étaient les cultures céréalières prédominantes, avec respectivement *,* et *,* million d'hectares. La superficie d'orge plantée au Royaume-Uni a diminué de moitié, passant de * millions d'hectares en **** à un minimum de *,* million d'hectares en ****. Toutefois, depuis lors, la superficie a légèrement augmenté et s'élève désormais à *,* million d'hectares.
Source: ****
On observe une baisse régulière de la surface biologique cultivée au Royaume-Uni, celle-ci est passée de *,**% à *,**% de **** à ****, cette baisse structurelle a été observée sur * des ** dernières années. [***]
Les trois principaux types de cultures : céréales, légumes, y compris les pommes de terre, et autres cultures arables, ont poursuivi leur déclin au cours de la dernière décennie, imitant largement la baisse des superficies cultivées. Parmi la surface biologique cultivée totale, *% concerne la culture céréalière. [***]
4 Analysis of the offer
4.1 Product typology, composition and substitutes
Typology of products
The different varieties of breakfast cereals can be divided into different sub-segments. First, there are the children's cereals which are usually very sweet. [***]
Among the adult cereals, we find the one based on muesli It is a mixture of oats and other ingredients such as dried fruit or seeds. The Granola A mixture of almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, cashew nuts and possibly oats and honey, which have seen the strongest market growth in recent years. Finally, flakes are usually found in the adult cereal aisles, usually made from rice and wheat. [***]
To this list of products should be added cereal bars, which can be made from a wide variety of ingredients and generally contain palm oil, such as the one manufactured by the brand Kellogg's Special K . In terms of ingredients, corn flakes are mainly based on corn, sugar, barley malt flavouring, salt and glucose syrup.
Hot cereals include products such as oatmeal, oatmeal or porridge, products such as those offered by Quaker .
Substitute products
The demand for breakfast cereals is limited by the enormous availability of alternatives. Most consumers prefer eggs, smoothies, frozen waffles, yogurt, sausages, puddings and other traditional breakfasts, which are healthier and made with fresh ...
4.2 Average prices recorded
The huge variety of cereals ranges from £*.* per kilo for private label corn fakes to over £** per kilo for Mama's cinnamon and apple porridge, depending on the brand's prices Tesco on their online grocery store.
The following table shows the average price per kilo of breakfast cereals sold by variety in ****.
Prices per kilo of the different types of cereals, ****
Source: ****
4.3 Substitute products and competition
Among ready-to-eat breakfast products, cereals are facing increasing competition [***]
Next comes crackers These are widely consumed in Great Britain with tea, which can usually be combined with butter or marmalade, as can toast. Kellogg's created their own product in the ****s, but soon abandoned it. [***]
Yoghurt and other dairy products s, as well as fruit, are also products that are increasingly found in British breakfasts, according to kantar .
Finally, it should be noted that the traditional English breakfast is also made up of eggs, bacon and white beans which should therefore be added to the list of indirect competitors to cereals.
4.4 Bulk cereals
A new method of distributing cereals is also developing in several supermarkets, that of bulk cereals. Consumers can then freely and in any quantity they wish, use breakfast cereals presented in bottles in supermarkets Source: Whole Food Market The company General Mills which owns the Cheerios and Cookie Crisp brands, practices this method of selling directly online, by offering bulk packages (***) of a quantity specified by the brand. The prices charged, on the foodservicedirect.com website, official partner of General Mills, hovers around $** a kilo for cookie crisps for example.
4.5 Changes in consumption by type of product
Source: ****
It can be observed that the decrease in the consumption of cereals with a high fibre content was mainly in favour of muesli, whose consumption fell from ** grams in **** to ** grams in ****, representing approximately **% of total consumption over the year.
Source: ****
It can be noted that the growth of mesli was particularly rapid from **** to ****, while consumption of the other breakfast cereals category collapsed.
5 Rules and regulations
5.1 Organic Label
For a brand to obtain the Organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions: At least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; the product complies with the rules of the official system of inspection; the product comes directly from the producer farmer or agri-food processor in a sealed package; the product bears the name of the producer farmer or agri-food processor or distributor and the name or code of the inspection body. In the European Union, the first regulation on organic farming came into force in **** (***). The new organic logo of the European Union came into effect on February *, ****
5.2 Obligations on packaging
There are many standards governing the production, labelling and distribution of food products. Most of them have been set up by the European Union (***) France Chamber of Great Britain ]
The Food Safety Act was implemented on January *, ****. It provides the framework for agri-food legislation. It aims to prevent the sale of foods that may affect consumer health, including
the composition is incorrectly described or the nature or quality of which does not conform to what appears on the product packaging. Local authorities must enforce food standards (***) and ensure that products are properly labelled.
The Food Labelling Regulations **** are the rules governing food labelling. They identify all the information that must appear on the food label, from ingredients to the possible presence of allergens.
Since * January ****, new regulations have been applied in the United Kingdom. Regulation (***) ***/**** on the hygiene of basic foodstuffs.
6 Positioning of the actors
6.1 Segmentation of players
- Kellogg’s
- Weetabix LTD
- General Mills
- Nestlé UK
- Arrowhead Mills
- Jordan Dorset Ryvita
- Tesco
- Sainsburys
- Raisio
- Nature’s Path
- The Spoon
- Deliciously Ella
- Cereal Killer Café
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the breakfast cereal market | UK
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