1.1 Definition and scope of study

A bakery-pastry shop is a local shop offering a wide range of products such as bread, pastries, cakes and sweets, sometimes also sandwiches and cold or hot drinks.

The global market for bakeries and pastry shops has been growing for several years. It is important to highlight that this market is highly heterogeneous according to local traditions and customs.

Bakeries and pastry shops occupy a central place in the Italian gastronomic tradition, and Italians are still very attached to this type of activity. There are currently 31,000 outlets in Italy. However, 'pure' pastry shops make up only 13%, or about 4,100 outlets. This means that the majority of activities are made up of establishments that integrate the pastry shop with the bar, ice cream parlour or bakery.

In Italy, bread plays a key role, with 85% of Italians declaring that they consume fresh, artisan bread, totalling 1,600,000 tonnes per year. In bakeries, 70% of the work of artisans concerns bread, while pizza and focaccia, which account for 23.5%, and cakes, which account for 6.2% of the total, are growing.

In spite of this traditional aspect, bakeries and pastry shops are trying to reinvent themselves by widening their offer to meet new consumer expectations, such as a healthy diet and lifestyle. In particular, bakeries and pastry shops are facing strong competition from large-scale distribution and other distribution channels that exploit economies of scale.

1.2 A Growing Global Market

In ****, global sales of bakery and pastry products amounted to an estimated $***.* billion. The world market for bakery and pastry products is expected to grow at a CAGR of *.*% over the period between **** and **** period, reaching an estimated market size of $***.* billion [***].

Global market size for bakery products World, ****-****, in ...

1.3 Evolution of the Italian Market

**% of the bread consumed in Italy is fresh and artisanal: on average, *.* million tons are produced per year, for a daily per capita consumption of ** grams. These figures were revealed by a Cerved research study presented at Sigep, the International Bakery, Pastry, Confectionery and Ice Cream Exhibition.

According to data provided ...

1.4 Imports and Exports

In order to analyze the trade balance of Italy for the bakeries and pastries market we are going to use the HS commodity code ****: Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, other bakers' wares, whether or not containing cocoa.

Imports, Exports and Coverage Rate for HS Code **** Italy, ****-****, in billion dollars and % Source: ...

1.5 COVID-19 Impact

Spending on cereal derivatives in **** grew at a low rate compared to other supply chains, only *.*%, after a shy +*.*% in ****. Weighing on the performance are mainly bread sales, with a spending down *.*% in value and *.*% in volume compared to **** and the inevitable loss of the recurring sweets segment, which following an ...

2.1 Demand Characteristics and New Trends in Demand

Bread and baked goods are booming in Italy as more and more people turn to the local bakery or supermarket instead of baking at home. A study by the Italian Association of Bakery Ingredients (***), found that demographic changes and an increase in smaller households and single-parent families had resulted in a ...

2.2 Consumer Profile and Consumption Habits

As the map and the annexed table below show, there is not a huge difference between the different macro regions in terms of average monthly family expenditure on bread and cereals. However, it is worth noticing that the two major Italian islands, Sicilia and Sardegna, do present the highest expenditure on ...

2.3 Curiosity and Research of a Healthy Diet Drive Consumption

The main drivers of consumption in this market are the following [***]:

Healthy Diet: Growing orientation towards products made from unrefined raw materials and made without chemical additives. Curiosity: The consumer is attracted by novelties, is curious and wants to experience new proposals well presented and narrated. Reduced Grammages: The demand is ...

3.1 Structure and Dynamics of the Market

Italy has always had a very significant number of baked goods and pastries producing enterprises also considering the value of this country's exports which we have highlighted in the first section. However, this number has been on a decreasing trend ever since **** and has gone down by *.*% as of ****.

Evolution of ...

3.2 Geographic Distribution of Specialized Stores

Another important side of this market is the retail one made up of specialized stores of bread, cakes, sweets and confectionery. As it is visible from the map below and the annexed graph with the relative percentages, the geographic distribution of these stores is pretty much aligned with the distribution of ...

3.3 Value Chain of the market

The value chain and functioning of the bakery and pastries market in Italy in synthesized below.

3.4 Innovation in the Italian industry: Baker_Eat

Rino Mini, an Italian entrepreneur known as "the king of water" because of his role in the historic Galvanina brand, has decided to undertake a new activity in Emilia Romagna during the Covid times. His idea consists of the opening of a chain of sales outlets that will be created under ...

4.1 Overview of the offer

A varied and constantly updated offer stimulates additional purchases, offsetting the decline in bread as traditionally understood and helping to shift sales to more remunerative products. Diversification is increasingly being practiced and is effective throughout the country, including small towns.

The gap between North and South has been narrowing in recent ...

4.2 Wheat: The Main Offer Driver

Common wheat is the basic raw material for the domestic milling industry, which processes it into flour for bread and other baked goods. The Italian industry's supply depends on domestic production and international supply.

A weak recovery in production has been assumed for the ****/**** harvest year compared to ****. The harvest was ...

4.3 Pricing

Eurostat analyzed the cost of bread in all ** EU member countries in ****. The most expensive ovens are those of Denmark: made *** the price level index of the EU average, a Danish citizen pays the most expensive bread, at *** points. About three times as much as Romanian citizens, whose price stands at ...

4.4 Best Bakeries in Italy

In the vast offer that Italian bakeries represent, Gambero Rosso has compiled a list of the best bakeries, divided by region, awarded with the Tre Pani recognition [***]:

Piedmont: Vulaiga, Fobello (***); Ficini, Turin; Perino Vesco, Turin; Luca Scarcella - Il Forno Dell'angolo, Turin; Spoto Bakery Voglia Di Pane, Turin. Lombardy: Voglia Di ...

4.5 Main Offer Trends

Healthy products

The healthy trend has affected also pastries and bakeries in Italy. Producers have responded to the trend and have implemented seasonal and healthier ingredients in their kitchens. The initiatives adopted by bakeries and pastries include the following:

increased production of sourdough bread, about +*/*% in **** over ****, the avoidance of certain ...

5.1 Regulation

The law prescribes, first of all, the sanitary booklet, issued by the ASL and to be renewed every year, and sanctions the general obligation of self-control - i.e. the responsibility to verify hygiene in the various steps - organized in the HACCP system (***). Its application is compulsory for the whole ...