The poké shops market - Italy

1.2 The global market

The size of the global poke food market is estimated to increase by US$***.** million from **** to ****. Market growth will accelerate with a CAGR (***) of *.** percent during the forecast period.

Value of the poke food market World, ****-****, millions of dollars Yahoofinance

No data are available on the distribution of this type of restaurant around the world, but we can provide an indication of the nations where Poké restaurants have become most popular by analyzing google searches for the word Poké over the past year.the values are calculated on a scale of * to ***, where *** indicates the location with the highest search frequency as a proportion of total searches for that location, and a value of ** indicates a location with half as many searches.

Belgium leads the way with a score of ***, followed by the Netherlands and Norway with scores above **, indicating high interest in poké. Some countries show moderate interest, with scores around **, while Italy, Spain, and Portugal have scores below **, indicating a lower degree of interest. At the bottom of the list are Germany and Taiwan with very low interest.

Popularity of the "Poké" search World, ****-****, index Google trends

1.3 The local market

In Italy pokè arrived in October ****, when I love Pokè opened its first store in Milan, while in early **** Ami Pokè was the first mover in Rome and, the first Hawaiian Bar * in Italy. Even in our country, pokè has achieved wide success in a short time, becoming the eighth most ordered food at home in **** and growing by more than ***% over ****.

In contrast to the rest of the world, Italy still records growth rates above triple digits, indicating a nation still with strong growth opportunities.

For this reason, it is estimated that Italy will only catch up with the global growth rate in ****, instead registering more sustained growth in the short-to-medium term, reaching over €***M market value in **** with a ****-**** CAGR of **.*%.

Poké market value Italy, ****-*****, € million Growthcapital

After the expansion of the past two years that has mainly characterized large cities, store growth is expected to focus more on smaller cities (***) and generally on areas that are not yet saturated. In parallel, increasing consolidation is expected, with large poké chains resorting to mergers and acquisitions to increase their market share.[***]

1.4 Import-export

For the analysis of imports and exports, a basket including some of the most commonly used ingredients in Italian Poké restaurants was identified. The data were then aggregated to provide an overall picture of trade related to the most commonly used ingredients in Poké bowls.

The ingredients considered are: rice, salad, mango, tomato, avocado, salmon, and tuna.

Between **** and ****, it is observed that the export of the basket of ingredients most commonly used in Poké bowls experienced significant growth, increasing by **.** percent. On the other hand, import saw an even greater increase, growing by **.** percent during the same period. The coverage ratio, which is the ratio of exports to imports, decreased from *.** to *.**, marking a negative change of **.**%. This indicates that the growth of imports was higher than that of exports.

Trade flows of the basket of ingredients most used in Poké Italy, ****-****, US$ million UNComtrade

This growth in the value of imports could, in part, be explained precisely by the increased demand that the spread of Poké restaurants has brought toward these products, combined with the Italian public's growing demand for healthy ingredients, such as those used by these restaurants.

1.5 The effect of recent economic conjunctures

In recent years we have seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, coupled with an inflationary movement that puts a strain on consumers' ability to buy. The overall consumer price idice is, as of February ****, ***.*. This means that prices have increased by **.* percent compared to ****.

Consumer price index for the whole of Italy, ****-****, base ****=*** Istat

Inflation has hit food even harder, with an increase over the past * years of almost **%.

Whole-of-community consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages prodi Italy, ****-****, base ****=*** Istat

2.1 Demand in Italy

Poké is a particular type of fast food, so in order to analyze the demand trend of Italians toward foods such as Poké vene considered the average monthly expenditure of Italian households on food services and fast food.

Catering:

In general, Italians' spending on food services has been strongly impacted by the pandemic. In **** and ****, spending remained relatively stable around ***-*** euros per month, with a very slight increase in **** followed by a small decrease in ****. However, in ****, there is a dramatic decrease, with the average expenditure dropping to **.** euros. In ****, there was some recovery, with average expenditure increasing to **.** euros, although not back to pre-pandemic levels.

Calculating the percentage change between **** and ****, we note a decrease of **.**%.

Average monthly household spending on food services Italy, ****-****, €/month Istat

Fast food:

The fast food category was less affected. The average monthly expenditure of Italian households on fast food saw a slight decrease from **** to ****, falling from €**.** to €**.**. In **** it decreased dramatically to **.**€. **** saw a partial recovery, with spending returning to **.**€, although it remained below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, from **** to ****, average monthly spending decreased by *.* percent.

Average monthly household spending on fast food services Italy, ****-****, €/month Istat

2.2 The delivery

The growth of poké sales goes hand in hand with the growth of online food sales under the delivery mode. Indeed, poké is one of the few healthy alternatives that can be ordered on platforms offering this service.

Just Eat has produced a report where it identifies trends in the various foods offered on its app in ****. Nationally, poké ranks fifth among el most popular cuisines on the platform.

Poké is precisely the cuisine that has experienced the most growth over the past year, followed by the healthy category, salads, rotisserie, and piadinas.

2.3 The geographical distribution of demand

In order to analyze the geographic distribution of poké demand we need to resort to different types of data, those presented below are:

The distribution in Italian macroregions of the average monthly family expenditure in fast food and take-away food services. Data on the fastest growing types of cuisine in the Italian regions according to Just Eat.

Average Spending:

The geographic distribution of average monthly famillary spending on fast food and take-away dining services highlights a great disparity among Italian regions. The north presents the highest expenditure, with €**.**/month, as one moves towards the south the expenditure decreases. The center records an expenditure of **.* €/month, while in the south the figure is just **.** €/month[***].

Regional growth:

Poké is reported to be the fastest-growing cuisine in ** Italian regions by ****, and it is not on the podium in only * regions.[***]

2.4 Demand trend: health food

According to the Nutrition Hub's"Nutrition Trends Report ****," **** saw an increase in plant-based diets and awareness of the climate impact of food choices. In ****, these trends are expected to continue to grow with an increased focus on conscious and sustainable food consumption.

Key trends in **** include increased consumption of plant-based foods as part of a Mediterranean diet and an increased focus on reducing waste and using environmentally sustainable packaging. In ****, these trends could lead to increased interest in ethical and sustainable diets, with further innovations in plant-based nutrition.

Food mindfulness, emphasizing "mindful eating," is becoming increasingly popular, encouraging individuals to develop a more balanced relationship with food through a deeper understanding of hunger and satiety signals.

The food industry is responding to these changes by introducing more plant-based and sustainable products, and making use of new technologies, such as digital nutrition, to assist people in monitoring and planning their diets. Understanding the importance of the gut microbiome is also influencing the industry, with increasing production of fermented foods and probiotics.

[***]

Trends in the food and nutrition industry for **** and beyond can be grouped into the following categories:[***]

Sustainable and climate-friendly food: Emphasis on local and seasonal products Transparency and short ...

3.1 The market structure

To analyze the structure of the poké market, the more general catering sector in Italy will be studied first, and then Groth Capital data regarding the specific poké sector will be presented.

Catering:

For the analysis of the structure of the catering market, * different magnitudes are considered:

Trend in the number of enterprises Legal form of enterprises

Within the poké category we find both restaurants with administration and restaurants without administration with take-away food preparation, so both categories will be considered.

Number of enterprises:

Between **** and ****, the restaurant with administration sector saw modest growth, with an increase of about *.* percent in the number of establishments. This segment experienced substantial growth through ****, followed by a slight contraction in ****, due to the impacts of the COVID-** pandemic, and then stabilized in ****.On the other hand, food service without serving with take-out food preparation saw slightly higher growth, with an increase of about *.** percent over the period. Again, it appears that the growth has been more pronounced in more recent years, indicating a change in consumer habits, which during the pandemic have opted more frequently for take-out than traditional catering with serving.

Number of restaurants Italy, ****-****, thousands Istat

Legal form:

In the Italian ...

3.2 The value chain

3.3 Distribution: the delivery

The food delivery sector in Italy continues to grow, generating a turnover of *.* billion euros in ****, representing a ** percent increase over **** and constituting ** percent of the food e-commerce market, according to the annual edition of the Food Delivery Map produced by JustEat.

Since ****, food delivery has become the predominant component of the industry, with significant growth in **** and ****. However, by ****, growth has settled back to pre-pandemic levels, despite an increase of *** million. Valentina Pontiggia of the Politecnico di Milano attributes this growth to the expanded coverage of the service, which is now available to ** percent of the Italian population and managed primarily by online platforms.

An analysis conducted by Just Eat Takeaway.com and BVA Doxa highlighted four main trends in Italians' consumption behavior:

Flexible hours for snack consumption, often replacing main meals. A growing interest in plant-based foods, with one in four Italians ordering more vegetarian food than three years ago. A preference for traditional Italian dishes, associated with positive memories and emotions. A significant role of social media in the choice of dishes and restaurants.

Italians prefer food delivery mainly during moments of relaxation after work or study, and most orders are placed in company. The main motivation for ...

3.4 The main market players

The main players in the Italian market are:[***]

Роkе House: established in ****, it has grown a lot thanks to two investment rounds in which it raised about ** million euros. It has the highest market share in Milan, with ** percent of the market. I Love Роkе: Born in **** froman idea by Michael Lewis and Rana Edwards, it has raised €** million so far through a series a funding round. It boasts the second-largest market share in both Milan (***). Macha Роkе: Founded in ****, it boasts ** stores so far all in Italy. It holds * percent market share in Milan. Pokeria by Nima: Founded in ****, it has opened ** stores. It holds * percent market share in Milan and * percent in Rome. Pokescuse: the first poke house in Veneto, raised *** thousand euros in a seed investment in January ****. Waikiki Роkе: Waikiki Poké is one of the brands of Feed Good srl, has opened ** stores so far.

4.1 The offer

Poke is a dish that originates from the Hawaiian culinary tradition, a true symbol of simplicity and freshness that has captured the palates of people around the world in recent years. The term "poke" in Hawaiian means "cut into pieces," a very direct description referring to the method of preparing the fish that is the basis of the dish. The correct pronunciation of the word "poke" is "poh-kay," a rhyme with the word "okay," a detail that can sometimes be missed and lead to alternative pronunciations.In its origins, poke was considered a "poor" dish. In fact, it was Hawaiian fishermen who took advantage of the freshness of freshly caught fish, consuming it in cubes and seasoning it simply with salt, nuts and other basic ingredients. However, over time, poke encountered other culinary cultures that enriched its recipe. It was the Japanese, for example, who introduced variations with soy sauce, rice, and the use of new flavor palettes, ranging from sweet and sour to spicy and sour.The transformation of poke did not stop in Japan, but continued its culinary journey by reaching the United States, where it first conquered Los Angeles and later New York. Here, many entrepreneurs seized the ...

4.2 The prices

When opting for restaurant consumption, poké prices generally range from €** to €**, depending also on the size. When ordering online, prices are generally higher, because they must also cover the fee due to the delivery platform.

Below are some examples of prices for the Italian market:

5.1 The regulation

The restaurant industry in Italy, including those specializing in poke, is subject to a number of laws and regulations to ensure food safety, hygiene, and consumer welfare. Some of the most important are:

EC Regulation No. ***/****: on the hygiene of foodstuffs. EC Regulation No. ***/****: establishing specific hygiene rules for food of animal origin. Regulation (***) No. ****/****: on the provision of food information to consumers, requiring clear and understandable labeling of food products. Legislative Decree No. *** of March **, ****: regulating commercial activity and licenses for starting a business. Regulation (***) No. ***/****: establishing the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in the field of food safety.

6.1 Segmentation

Companies active in Italy with presence abroad as well:

Main companies present only in Italy:

• Waikiki Poke
• Poke House S.r.l.
• I Love Poke
• Macha Poke
• Pokeria by Nima
• Pokescuse