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Summary and extracts
1 Synthèse du marché
1.1 Introduction and purpose of the study
Some of the most controversial and debated topics nowadays are about the transition to a zero-emission world, especially about dealing with the means and the ways to achieve this transition.
In the world of transportation, electricity is now almost universally recognized as the main road to achieving the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. This technology, however very useful, like all radical innovations, has its limits, related to the materials used, the production of the vehicles, the infrastructure required for their use, their real environmental impact, etc.
These limits will likely be overcome by technological innovations, given the massive investments that are now driving its development, but in the meantime, the climate situation continues to worsen and the world needs more immediate solutions.
Synthetic fuels are being presented precisely this way, as an outcome that can be deployed right away in existing and circulating vehicles, without the need to change either the existing infrastructure or the vehicles. Consequently, the efficient value chain that companies have created over the decades that internal combustion engines have been in use. In addition, synthetic fuels are also a solution for the kinds of transportation for which electrification is unthinkable (ex. air transport).
Despite this, even for this technology, there is no shortage of sticking points. In this case, they are related to the cost of production, lower energy efficiency, and the need for more renewable energy sources to make their use actually sustainable.
These points are fueling an increasingly heated debate, particularly since the European Commission announced that starting in 2035, not only electric and hydrogen cars will be sold, but also those that run only on e-fuel, with BEV proponents seeing e-fuel as a technology developed specifically by the oil lobby to slow down the electrification transition.
This report will provide an unbiased overview of the market and characteristics of e-fuel, based only on verified data, to uncover the real potential, and limitations, of this debated technology.
1.2 Worldwide expansion
The global synthetic fuels market was valued at $*.* billion in **** and is expected to reach $**.* billion by ****, growing at a CAGR of **.* percent from **** to ****.
The market value of synthetic fuels World, ****-****, US$ billion alliedmarketresearch
The market data, even though the market is still composed of a very limited number ...
1.3 The NZE (Net Zero Emissions) scenario by 2050 in the transportation sector
The exponential increase in global CO* emissions in recent history has led to serious consequences for our planet. This rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to fossil fuel use and deforestation, has had a significant impact on climate change, causing sea level rise, extreme weather events, and loss of ...
2 Analyse de la demande
2.1 The demand: road transport
While the use of synthetic kerosene and synthetic ammonia in air and sea transport is generally accepted, mainly due to the absence of realistic alternatives, the use of e-petrol and e-diesel in road transport is particularly debated [***].
To offer an unbiased perspective on the topic we will include both the assumptions ...
2.2 The question: aviation
In ****, aviation accounted for more than * percent of global energy-related CO* emissions, growing faster in recent decades than roads, railways, or shipping. With countries returning from Covid-** lockdowns in ****, aviation emissions reached about *** Mt, recovering nearly a third of the decline from **** levels seen in ****. Numerous technical measures related to low-emission ...
2.3 The demand: maritime transport
In ****, international shipping accounted for about * percent of global energy-related CO* emissions. In the same year, emissions from the international shipping sector grew by * percent, recovering from the sharp decline in **** to reach **** levels. To adhere to the Net Zero Emissions Scenario by ****, total emissions will need to remain stable until ...
2.4 General interest in e-fuels
Google trends searches can give us a hint about the public's interest in efuels technology. To perform this analysis, after checking if similar terms (***) show a similar trend, the terms "efuels" were chosen for the worldwide analysis and "synthetic fuels" for the Italian-level analysis.
The analysis confirms the previously stated hypothesis ...
3 Structure du marché
3.1 A market in its infancy
As mentioned earlier, synthetic fuel production plants, either already in existence or under construction, are located mainly in Germany, although the first one to go into operation - in **** - is located in Iceland.
Most of the projects that are emerging and will emerge in the coming years are spin-offs of ...
3.2 The value chain
3.3 Distribution, one of the strengths of synthetic fuels
Among the obstacles to the development of electric vehicles, there is certainly the lack of infrastructure needed to charge them. Currently, charging of electric vehicles takes place mainly in homes and workplaces, but consumers increasingly expect similar services, simplicity and autonomy to those offered by traditional vehicles.
In Europe, there are ...
4 Analyse de l'offre
4.1 An alternative fuel
Fuels are materials that react with other substances to release energy. That energy can be released through heat or workforce. Fuels can also be used as raw materials or reagents in various industries, such as fossil fuels in the chemical industry. The rapid cost reduction of solar and wind technologies has ...
4.2 The prices
Currently, the production cost of efuels is around **€/l, about *** times higher than regular gasoline prices. This cost is due to the current limited production and the high cost of energy, especially if it is renewable [***]. However, this could change:
As more eFuels are gradually added to conventional fuels and production ...
4.3 The actual emissions
After the European Commission decided to allow the production of ICE cars even after ****, the year by which it had previously set a stop for them, a debate has been fueled as heated as it had been regarding the stop itself.
Transport&Enviroment commissioned a study to verify the true properties ...
5 Règlementation
5.1 The regulation
In Europe, the law that defined a stop to the sale of cars with internal combustion engines by **** is ****/****. A few days after the law passed it was announced that an agreement had been reached with Germany to continue the sale of these cars with the introduction of the use of ...
6 Positionnement des acteurs
6.1 Segmentation
Startups and companies specializing in the production of eFuels:
Large international companies investing in plants:
- Synhelion
- Ineratec
- Chemieanlagenbau Chemnitz GmbH (CAC)
- H&R GmbH & Co KgaA
- Atmosfair
- Aramco
- ArcelorMittal
- Engie
- Repsol
- Infinium
- Liquid Wind
- Norsk e-Fuel
- Nordic Electrofuel AS
- Siemens
- Arcadia eFuels
- Carbon Recycling International
- NEOM Green Hydrogen Company
- HIF Global
- Abel Energy
- ThyssenKrupp
- Porsche
- Enel green power S.p.a.
- Johnson Matthey Group
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Latest news
ArcelorMittal: Italy on the verge of putting one of Europe's largest steelworks into receivership - 18/01/2024
- Acciaierie d'Italia was placed under Italian state administration in 2015.
- ArcelorMittal became the main shareholder in 2018, holding 62% of the company's capital.
- The Italian government has committed to providing public aid of up to €1 billion in December 2022.
- The company provides 11,000 direct jobs, and up to 20,000 if indirect jobs are counted.
- Planned production should have reached 8 million tonnes by 2025, but has fallen to 3 million tonnes by 2023.
Engie New Ventures bets on Upstream Tech, a start-up specializing in water management - 16/12/2023
- Creation of ENGIE New Ventures (ENV): 2014
- Total amount invested by ENV: Over 250 million euros
- ENV investment areas from 2020: Biogas, hydrogen, renewable energies and decarbonization
- Upstream Tech creation date: 2016
- Upstream Tech headquarters: Massachusetts, USA
- Number of Upstream Tech employees: Around 30
- Power of ENGIE's hydroelectric fleet worldwide: 18 gigawatts, equivalent to 18 nuclear reactors.
Install 11,000 charging stations in France in two years - 18/06/2023
- Engie Vianeo electric mobility brand
- 12,000 electric charging points planned in France by 2025
- 1,000 charging points already deployed
- 800 fast and ultra-fast charging points on APRR, SANEF, Vinci Autoroutes and ESSO motorway networks (Certas Energy France)
- Presence in 35 Indigo parking lots in 20 cities, Eurométropole de Strasbourg, Communauté d'Agglomération d'Epinal, Métropole Aix-Marseille-Provence, B & B Hotels parking lots and Norauto sites
- 4,500 fast and ultra-fast charging points (less than 20 minutes charging time).
- electricity from renewable sources (hydro, wind and solar)
- French national target of 400,000 charging points by 2030
Siemens triples second-quarter earnings - 17/05/2023
- The world's third-largest rail group signed a contract worth 3 billion euros at the beginning of the year to supply 1,200 locomotives to India's state-owned railway company
Arkema signs major biomethane purchase agreement with Engie - 20/01/2023
- Purchase of 300 gigawatt-hours of energy per year over 10 years
- This contract, billed as one of the largest private biomethane contracts in Europe to date, is a major step forward for the energy giant
- This low-carbon gas comes from 17 methanization sites, notably on farms, across France, whose production the energy giant buys for resale
- France has 500 biogas plants connected to the gas distribution network
- This sector accounts for 2% of national gas consumption, and is growing fast
Engie boosts its offshore wind portfolio by winning two projects in Scotland | Engie adds two new offshore wind projects to its portfolio by winning them in Scotland. - 23/08/2022
- Ocean Winds, the joint venture between Engie and its Portuguese partner EDPR, has won a tender to build and operate two Scottish offshore wind projects
- At a depth of 100 meters, they will require floating wind technology
- The larger project, which will generate 1.8 GW, will be sufficient to supply 2 million homes with electricity.
- The investment would be around 1.4 billion euros
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The market for synthetic fuels | Italy
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