The electric car market - Italy

1.2 The international market

Global sales of electric vehicles continue to set new records. During ****, more than ** million cars were sold "on tap," accounting for ** percent of total vehicle sales. Global spending on electric car purchases exceeded $*** billion in ****, up ** percent from the previous year.(***)

By ****, electric car sales are expected to reach ** million, registering a **% growth over the previous year. In the first three months of the year, from January to March, as many as *.* million new plug-in cars were registered, marking a ** percent increase over the same period in ****.

These figures emerge from the Global EV Outlook ****, published by the International Energy Agency (***). The growth in electric vehicle sales reflects the increasing adoption of sustainable technologies in the automotive sector worldwide.

Between **** and ****, the global market is expected to grow to $*.*** billion with **.* million cars sold. The compound annual growth rate (***) is estimated at **.* percent over the forecast period.

Market value of electric cars World, ****-****, billion dollars Fortunebusinessinsights

in ****, the Chinese market appears to be the most developed globally, with a market share of ** percent. The second place is occupied by the United States, with a gap of almost fifty percentage points from the first and with a **% share; followed by Germany ...

1.3 The Italian market

In Italy, the economic value of car manufacturing in **** amounts to ** billion euros. Compared with ****, turnover at the national level fell by **.* percent.

Automobile manufacturing Italy, ****-****, billion euros ISTAT

In Italy, the share of electric cars in the total number of cars stands at *.* percent in ****, down slightly from the *.* percent recorded in ****. Of the ***,*** electric cars registered in ****, **.* percent were plug-in type while **.* percent were fully electric. The first eight months of **** saw an increase in the registrations of all-electric cars compared to the same period in ****: **,*** in **** compared to **,*** in **** (***)

Electric and plug-in car registrations Italy, ****-**** UNRAE

1.4 Import-export

The ratio of imports to exports has changed significantly in recent years in Italy. While until **** Italy could be defined as a net importer, as of **** exports of all-electric vehicles are greater than imports. Between **** and ****, the value of exports grew by *** percent year-on-year in the face of ** percent annual growth for imports.

Import - export full electric cars Italy, ****-****, millions of dollars UN Comtrade

On the other hand, the situation regarding plug-in cars is different, for which Italy still remains a net importer, with a coverage ratio that does not exceed *.* during the reporting period.

Import - export plug-in cars Italy, ****-****, millions of dollars UN Comtrade

The main destinations for full-electric car exports are Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Spain.

Main destinations of full electric car exports Italy, ****, % UN Comtrade

For plug-in cars, however, the main destinations are the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Brazil, Japan and Belgium.

Main plug-in car export destinations Italy, ****, % UN Comtrade

The main countries from which Italy imports electric cars include Germany, Spain, Slovenia, France and Belgium.

Main countries of origin importing electric cars Italy, ****, % UN Comtrade

Finally, among the main countries exporting plug-in cars to Italy are Germany, Poland, Belgium, the Czech ...

1.5 Impact of the war in Ukraine

The outbreak of conflict in Ukraine combined with rising demand for semiconductors is threatening the electric car market. The rising price of nickel, a key element in battery construction, has had major repercussions on the cost of production of electric cars. In the aftermath of the Russian invasion, the price per ton touched $***,*** when in the past as a rule it had never exceeded $**,***.(***).

Another critical point is the rising cost of charging electric cars. The increase in the cost for the energy raw material, resulting from the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has also had strong repercussions on the automotive sector and the electric sector in particular. While in **** a home refueling for *,*** kilometers of driving cost an average of ** euros for an electric subcompact car, in **** the price reached an average of ** euros. On an annual basis, the increase is *** percent, from *.* to *.** euros per kW. In ****, in Italy, the cost for a "domestic" recharge is *.** euros per kW; recharging at a ** kW power column has risen to *.** euros per kW, with peaks of up to *.** euros in the case of high-power columns.

Electric car charging cost

Italy, ****-****, euros/kW

corriere.it sicurauto.it

However, it is possible ...

2.1 The Italian demand

Between **** and ****, the average monthly expenditure of an Italian family on car purchases dropped by **.* percent. In the span of five years, it went from spending **.** euros per month to **.** euros. (***) The recorded drop in registrations suggests that a further decline will be recorded in ****.

Average monthly expenditure on automobiles Italy, ****-****, euros ISTAT

However, the decline in spending does not appear to be correlated with the sale of electric cars. Between **** and ****, electric car sales grew at an annual rate of ***.* percent.

Electric cars sold

The increase in sales of electric cars is reflected in a higher percentage of electric cars in total cars sold. Between **** and ****, the percentage weight of electric cars in total sales increased from *.* percent to *.* percent.

Percentage of electric cars in total sales Italy, ****-****, % Autoelectric***

2.2 Demand drivers

The demand for electric cars in Italy is mainly driven by:

Environmental factors: No greenhouse gas emissions, thus contributing to the ecological transition Abatement of noise pollution

Economic factors: Lower maintenance costs due to the lack of a number of components found in internal combustion cars, such as the clutch and engine oil Lower fueling costs with photovoltaic technology Government incentives for the purchase of electric cars Exemption from paying car tax bills Insurance premiums **-**% lower than for internal combustion cars(***)

Greater traffic freedoms: electric cars are not subject to any traffic blocks resulting from increased concentration of fine particulate matter.(***)

2.3 Geographical distribution of demand

To visualize the geographical distribution of demand, a map was created with the number of electric cars by Italian macro-region.

In terms of sales, the Northeast and Northwest occupy the first (***), respectively. The gap with the North remains one of the main obstacles to overcome.

2.4 New trends in demand

In recent years, consumer preference has moved toward plug-in cars. The preference toward this type of car in Italy is mainly justified by the fear of not finding columns at which to recharge their cars. In fact, plug-in cars, unlike full electrics, can also run on internal combustion, powered by diesel or gasoline. In addition, the cost to be incurred for plug-in cars is lower than for full-electric cars.

In ****, sales of plug-in cars exceed those of full-electric cars for the first time; in **** and early ****, this trend will be consolidated.

Plug-in and full electric car registrations Italy, ****-****, no. of cars *january/August **** UNRAE

3.1 The market

In Italy, the number of people employed in the sector related to the manufacture of automobiles had an uncertain trend between **** and ****. Although it is possible to record an overall growth during the period (***), after **** the trend of employment in this sector is uncertain.

Employment in automobile manufacturing

The number of enterprises devoted to automotive production (***) appears to be growing between **** and ****, with an increase of *.* percent in * years. However, again it is not possible to speak of certainty of growth in the medium term.

Automotive manufacturing enterprises Italy, ****-****, n° enterprises ISTAT

As evidenced by the graphs just offered, it is not possible to speak of market consolidation in the automotive sector as the increase in employees in the sector is offset by an increase in companies in the area.

In ****, limited liability companies represented the main form of business in the sector, accounting for **.* percent of the total. This is followed by sole proprietors and joint stock companies, **.* percent and *.* percent of the total, respectively.

Legal form of enterprises Italy, ****, no. of companies ISTAT

3.2 The value chain

Regarding raw materials, it is interesting to focus on those used in the production of electric car batteries. Lithium, cobalt and rare earths are the main components of modern lithium-ion batteries within which the energy charge is stored to power the car. Lithium is not a rare element in nature, and the discovery of new deposits is not uncommon news. Between * and ** kg of lithium are used in electric car batteries. The price of this element has risen considerably after the boom in electric cars and after the rush for raw materials following the pandemic period: between **** and **** it rose from * euros per kg to ** euros per kg, with peaks of up to ** euros at the beginning of the year. However, the trend is declining.(***)

However, a different discussion applies to cobalt, whose use in batteries averages ** kg per battery. Cobalt is a more difficult element to extract and significantly more expensive than lithium. In ****, the cobalt price index dropped to $**,*** per ton due to stable demand as new deposits were discovered. However, analysts predict a further decline in the price per ton as, despite an * percent increase in demand, supply will increase by ** percent in **** due to the incredible contribution ...

3.3 Distribution channels

Distribution channels in the automotive sector in Italy have not changed significantly in recent years, with dealers remaining the main point of purchase and information for most consumers.

Dealers in Italy Italy, ****-****, no. ISTAT

However, technological developments have influenced some consumer behaviors:

Online buying options: several manufacturers offer the possibility to buy their cars directly from the company's website, offering a discounted price compared to the physical dealer (***) Searching for deals online: some websites aggregate sales prices from different physical dealerships allowing consumers to get an overview of the offer directly from home (***).

3.4 Main Actors

The main automakers in italy

Fiat: is a historic Italian company based in Turin, Italy, founded in **** by Giovanni Agnelli. It is one of the world's leading automakers and has been known for producing a wide range of vehicles, including cars, commercial vehicles and trucks.

Mercedez- Benz: is a renowned German automaker with a long and prestigious history in the automobile industry. Founded in ****, Mercedes-Benz is a division of the Daimler AG group and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.

Tesla: is one of the most innovative and well-known automotive companies in the world, focusing on the production of high-performance electric vehicles, energy storage systems and renewable energy solutions. Founded in **** by Elon Musk, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

Renault: is a French automaker with a long history in the automobile industry. Founded in **** by Louis Renault, the company is headquartered in Boulogne-Billancourt, France, and is one of the largest and most historic car manufacturers in Europe.

Audi: is a renowned German automaker with a long history and reputation for quality, elegance and innovation in the automobile industry. Founded in **** and based in Ingolstadt, Germany, Audi is part of the Volkswagen Group.

Hyundai: is a ...

4.1 Type of the offer

The range of electric cars can be divided into two:

PHEV (***) cars: this type combines electric power with endothermic power, enabling one to travel part of one's journey in fully electric mode, after recharging at a charging station. Because it is rechargeable, this type of car is exempt from tax stamps and enjoys government incentives. BEV (***).

In ****, in Italy, the best-selling models of electric cars include:

City car: a specific type of car designed primarily for use in urban or city environments (***) Mini SUV: is a category of vehicle that combines some of the features of a traditional SUV with the more compact size of a car (***) SUV: is a type of automotive vehicle designed to combine the features of a passenger car and an off-road vehicle (***)

In ****, the best-selling full electric cars in Italy are:

As for plug-in hybrids:

4.2 Prices

Although the cost of maintaining an electric car is, on average, lower than its internal combustion counterpart, the selling price of these cars is higher. The price difference finds motivation in several factors:

Innovative technology High battery costs Investment with a high degree of risk (***) Requires additional efforts in research and development Need to adhere to Italian and European regulations

4.3 New trends in supply: better batteries and lower costs

Tesla has recently moved forward on the adoption of a new type of battery, the ****. Adoption of this new type means lower production costs, as fewer cells are needed to create the batteries, and increased range due to a ** percent higher energy density than **** cells.(***)

A new trend, not yet adopted by any manufacturer, is solid-state batteries. Solid-state batteries represent an exciting prospect for the electric car industry. They offer a long range, shorter charging times, and increased durability and safety. Solid-state batteries operate similarly to lithium-ion batteries. However, unlike lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries use a solid electrolyte, hence their name. Solid-state batteries are also characterized by lower weight and can be recharged at a rate that, in some cases, is up to *-* times faster than a battery with a liquid electrolyte.(***)

5.1 Regulatory framework

The regulatory framework for electric vehicles

Directive ****/**/EU: the development and operation of charging infrastructure must comply with competitive market rules with open access to all entities that own and operate charging points in a space open to the public. Delegated Regulation (***) device the emits an artificial sound similar to combustion cars with a volume between ** and ** decibels. Fit for **: The set of measures aimed at Europe's green transition includes, among other things, the approval of a regulation introducing a ban on the sale of non-full electric cars from ****. IEC Standard EN *****-*:****-**: this standard specifies test procedures and acceptance criteria for the safety performance of lithium-ion batteries and battery blocks used for the propulsion of electric vehicles (***). Standard IEC *****-*:****-**: specifies general requirements for lithium-ion batteries. Standards IEC *****-*:****-** and IEC *****-*:****-**: define dimensional compatibility and interchangeability requirements for plug and socket connections. IEC Standard EN *****-*:****-**: applied to equipment for on-board and off-board charging of electric vehicles.

5.2 State grants

Italy offers significant concessions for the purchase of electric vehicles. The first measures were introduced in **** within the Budget Law, while in **** the "ecobonus" was established. In ****, the Prime Minister's Decree (***) of April *, **** and the Decree Law on Simplifications further expanded the available financial incentives.

Currently, for the purchase of a vehicle in the *-** g/km Co* emission range (***) there is a state subsidy of *,*** euros in the case of scrapping the old vehicle with a class below Euro *; without scrapping the subsidy drops to *,*** euros.

For the **-** g/km emission band (***) there is a contribution of *,*** in case of scrapping; without scrapping the contribution drops to *,*** euros.

It is possible to check the remaining availability of state incentives directly on the site related to theecobonus.

6.1 Segmentation

Italian companies:

Foreign companies:

• Stellantis (Groupe PSA et Fiat)
• Mercedes-Benz
• Audi (Volkswagen Group)
• Hyundai Motors
• Toyota
• Tesla
• Renault Groupe