The restaurant market - Italy

The foodservice market encompasses a broad spectrum of activities ranging from preparation to serving food and beverages, divided into several key segments: traditional catering, such as restaurants, trattorias and taverns that enhance local culinary traditions; commercial catering, which includes fast food, pizzerias and international chains; mass catering, focused on school, company and hospital canteens; and innovative solutions such as dark kitchens, food trucks and pop-up restaurants, which represent the new frontier of the dining experience, meeting the needs of an increasingly diverse public. Alongside these, we find fast food catering, designed for the hectic pace of urban areas, and hotel catering, which combines gastronomic luxury with the tourist experience, often enhancing local products. Globally, the restaurant market is growing strongly, from 478.7 billion in 2023 to 635.5 billion in 2032, an increase of 32.7 percent. This trend is supported by growing demand for unique dining experiences, the spread of food delivery, and the push toward sustainable models. In Europe, the sector is characterized by a strong fragmented identity, with the predominance of small and medium-sized companies rooted in the local area. However, technological innovation, the adoption of sustainable practices and the growing role of delivery are redefining the competitive landscape on the continent as well. The European market will grow 14.2 percent by 2031, reaching 161 billion euros. In Italy, the restaurant market shows steady, if moderate, growth, rising from 92 billion euros in 2023 to 104.95 billion in 2030 (+14%). After the drastic decline in 2020 (-36.2%) caused by the pandemic, the sector has experienced a significant recovery since 2021, with a 40% increase bringing revenue levels back above pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, the number of active businesses was 71,290, still heavily dominated by sole proprietors (136,868 businesses), followed by limited liability companies (68,076). However, the sector is facing structural difficulties: in 2023, the balance between openings and closures was negative (-17,693 businesses), with the rate of terminations three times as high as new registrations. On the demand side, Italian consumers show a growing interest in sustainable and innovative models. In 2023, 40 percent of out-of-home visits are attributed to the 35-54 age group, which prefers occasions related to work and evening leisure, while the 16-24 year-old segment has reduced the frequency of evening visits by 6 percent compared to the previous year. Geographically, the Northwest has the highest average monthly spending on dining services (172.5 euros), while the South and Islands are at much lower levels (73.8 and 83.7 euros, respectively). Online interest in dining is mainly concentrated in northern regions, with Trentino-South Tyrol registering the highest search index (Google Trend Index: 100). In terms of supply trends, the industry is diversifying with the introduction of plant-based menus, zero waste options and dark kitchens for delivery. Thematic restaurants, multi-sensory dining experiences, and integrated technology (such as QR codes for menus and contactless payments) are rapidly gaining ground. The consumer price index for food services rose 20.5 percent between 2018 and 2024, reflecting inflationary pressures in the sector. However, this increase was not matched by adequate profit margins: commercial profitability (ROS) declined from 6 percent in 2018 to 5.1 percent in 2023, highlighting a general difficulty in maintaining high levels of profitability. Regulations governing the market are strict, covering aspects such as hygiene, food safety, and product traceability. Adoption of HACCP systems is mandatory, as is compliance with European regulations on food labeling and allergen indication. Leading companies, including Da Vittorio, Gruppo Cannavacciuolo and Langosteria, are meeting these challenges through strategies focused on quality, innovation and sustainability, representing excellence on the Italian and international scene.

Analyst's comment The restaurant market is going through a phase of profound transformation, suspended between tradition and innovation. While on the one hand the growth of food delivery and dark kitchens is redefining the concept of the dining experience, the sector continues to be penalized by rising operating costs and reduced profitability. The fragmentation of the European market, with a strong presence of small and medium-sized companies, is a strength in terms of supply diversification, but risks making the sector less competitive with large international chains. To keep up with new trends, operators will need to invest in sustainability, digitization and new forms of gastronomic experience, without losing sight of the economic balance needed to ensure the stability of the sector.